Anthropic’s staggered release cadence keeps Haiku models on a separate track from flagship Sonnet and Opus tiers, with the last update—Claude Haiku 4.5—shipping on October 15, 2025, at roughly one-third the cost and twice the speed of then-current Sonnet 4 while matching it on coding and agent benchmarks. Since then, the company has launched multiple 5-series models in 2026, including Sonnet 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5.1, without a corresponding Haiku refresh, creating the main catalyst for trader positioning. Market-implied odds cluster around late October 2026, reflecting historical intervals between Haiku versions and the absence of official announcements or credible leaks. Key swing factors include any surprise October reveal, competitive pressure from faster Gemini or GPT updates, and internal prioritization of larger models. Traders should monitor Anthropic’s blog and API changelog for confirmed release windows or feature thresholds.
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Oct 15, 2026
October 15
27%
October 31
61%
December 31
55%
$9,539 Vol.
October 15
$241 Vol.
27%
October 31
$987 Vol.
61%
December 31
$4,559 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s staggered release cadence keeps Haiku models on a separate track from flagship Sonnet and Opus tiers, with the last update—Claude Haiku 4.5—shipping on October 15, 2025, at roughly one-third the cost and twice the speed of then-current Sonnet 4 while matching it on coding and agent benchmarks. Since then, the company has launched multiple 5-series models in 2026, including Sonnet 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5.1, without a corresponding Haiku refresh, creating the main catalyst for trader positioning. Market-implied odds cluster around late October 2026, reflecting historical intervals between Haiku versions and the absence of official announcements or credible leaks. Key swing factors include any surprise October reveal, competitive pressure from faster Gemini or GPT updates, and internal prioritization of larger models. Traders should monitor Anthropic’s blog and API changelog for confirmed release windows or feature thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 3, 2026, 9:07 AM ET
Volume
$9,539Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Sep 3, 2026, 9:07 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s staggered release cadence keeps Haiku models on a separate track from flagship Sonnet and Opus tiers, with the last update—Claude Haiku 4.5—shipping on October 15, 2025, at roughly one-third the cost and twice the speed of then-current Sonnet 4 while matching it on coding and agent benchmarks. Since then, the company has launched multiple 5-series models in 2026, including Sonnet 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5.1, without a corresponding Haiku refresh, creating the main catalyst for trader positioning. Market-implied odds cluster around late October 2026, reflecting historical intervals between Haiku versions and the absence of official announcements or credible leaks. Key swing factors include any surprise October reveal, competitive pressure from faster Gemini or GPT updates, and internal prioritization of larger models. Traders should monitor Anthropic’s blog and API changelog for confirmed release windows or feature thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$9,539Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Sep 3, 2026, 9:07 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s staggered release cadence keeps Haiku models on a separate track from flagship Sonnet and Opus tiers, with the last update—Claude Haiku 4.5—shipping on October 15, 2025, at roughly one-third the cost and twice the speed of then-current Sonnet 4 while matching it on coding and agent benchmarks. Since then, the company has launched multiple 5-series models in 2026, including Sonnet 5, Opus 5, and Fable 5.1, without a corresponding Haiku refresh, creating the main catalyst for trader positioning. Market-implied odds cluster around late October 2026, reflecting historical intervals between Haiku versions and the absence of official announcements or credible leaks. Key swing factors include any surprise October reveal, competitive pressure from faster Gemini or GPT updates, and internal prioritization of larger models. Traders should monitor Anthropic’s blog and API changelog for confirmed release windows or feature thresholds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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