Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting strong conviction in the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, reducing the group's global supply control from roughly 30% to 26%. Recent OPEC+ ministerial meetings, including the April 5 virtual session affirming a modest 206,000 barrels per day output hike for May amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions, underscore ongoing coordination led by Saudi Arabia. This skin-in-the-game sentiment draws from OPEC's historical endurance through past rifts and quota disputes. Realistic challenges include cascading defections if oil prices plunge below $60 per barrel or escalate non-compliance amid U.S. shale competition, with monthly reviews as key near-term catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting strong conviction in the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, reducing the group's global supply control from roughly 30% to 26%. Recent OPEC+ ministerial meetings, including the April 5 virtual session affirming a modest 206,000 barrels per day output hike for May amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions, underscore ongoing coordination led by Saudi Arabia. This skin-in-the-game sentiment draws from OPEC's historical endurance through past rifts and quota disputes. Realistic challenges include cascading defections if oil prices plunge below $60 per barrel or escalate non-compliance amid U.S. shale competition, with monthly reviews as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$1,869Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting strong conviction in the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, reducing the group's global supply control from roughly 30% to 26%. Recent OPEC+ ministerial meetings, including the April 5 virtual session affirming a modest 206,000 barrels per day output hike for May amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions, underscore ongoing coordination led by Saudi Arabia. This skin-in-the-game sentiment draws from OPEC's historical endurance through past rifts and quota disputes. Realistic challenges include cascading defections if oil prices plunge below $60 per barrel or escalate non-compliance amid U.S. shale competition, with monthly reviews as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,869Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting strong conviction in the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, reducing the group's global supply control from roughly 30% to 26%. Recent OPEC+ ministerial meetings, including the April 5 virtual session affirming a modest 206,000 barrels per day output hike for May amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions, underscore ongoing coordination led by Saudi Arabia. This skin-in-the-game sentiment draws from OPEC's historical endurance through past rifts and quota disputes. Realistic challenges include cascading defections if oil prices plunge below $60 per barrel or escalate non-compliance amid U.S. shale competition, with monthly reviews as key near-term catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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