The UAE's May 2026 exit already removed a major producer frustrated by quotas and seeking higher output amid Iran-related supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Subsequent signals from Iraq in June about potential withdrawal over production limits were clarified by officials as non-official and resolved through continued negotiations rather than departure. Venezuela faces structural pressures but shows no near-term action, given its modest output levels and OPEC's focus on 2027 quota baselines. With core OPEC+ members maintaining unchanged output policies into October and emphasizing internal coordination, trader consensus at 75.5% for no additional exits by year-end reflects the absence of fresh triggers and the group's adaptation to its reduced membership of 11 countries.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
25% peluang
$179,386 Vol.
$179,386 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
25% peluang
$179,386 Vol.
$179,386 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's May 2026 exit already removed a major producer frustrated by quotas and seeking higher output amid Iran-related supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Subsequent signals from Iraq in June about potential withdrawal over production limits were clarified by officials as non-official and resolved through continued negotiations rather than departure. Venezuela faces structural pressures but shows no near-term action, given its modest output levels and OPEC's focus on 2027 quota baselines. With core OPEC+ members maintaining unchanged output policies into October and emphasizing internal coordination, trader consensus at 75.5% for no additional exits by year-end reflects the absence of fresh triggers and the group's adaptation to its reduced membership of 11 countries.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$179,386Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's May 2026 exit already removed a major producer frustrated by quotas and seeking higher output amid Iran-related supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Subsequent signals from Iraq in June about potential withdrawal over production limits were clarified by officials as non-official and resolved through continued negotiations rather than departure. Venezuela faces structural pressures but shows no near-term action, given its modest output levels and OPEC's focus on 2027 quota baselines. With core OPEC+ members maintaining unchanged output policies into October and emphasizing internal coordination, trader consensus at 75.5% for no additional exits by year-end reflects the absence of fresh triggers and the group's adaptation to its reduced membership of 11 countries.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$179,386Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The UAE's May 2026 exit already removed a major producer frustrated by quotas and seeking higher output amid Iran-related supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Subsequent signals from Iraq in June about potential withdrawal over production limits were clarified by officials as non-official and resolved through continued negotiations rather than departure. Venezuela faces structural pressures but shows no near-term action, given its modest output levels and OPEC's focus on 2027 quota baselines. With core OPEC+ members maintaining unchanged output policies into October and emphasizing internal coordination, trader consensus at 75.5% for no additional exits by year-end reflects the absence of fresh triggers and the group's adaptation to its reduced membership of 11 countries.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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