Recent UAE withdrawal effective May 2026, driven by long-standing disputes over production quotas limiting its expanded output capacity, has already tested OPEC cohesion alongside Angola’s 2024 exit. Iraq signaled quota dissatisfaction in June amid Iran-related export disruptions but officially reaffirmed membership while seeking adjustments. Venezuela has weighed departure in internal deliberations reported since August, yet analysts describe any move as structurally possible but not imminent given modest current output and limited near-term quota pressure. OPEC+ members have since focused on quota reviews and 2027 baselines rather than further fragmentation, supporting trader consensus that additional exits this year remain unlikely.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
37% peluang
$177,339 Vol.
$177,339 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
37% peluang
$177,339 Vol.
$177,339 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent UAE withdrawal effective May 2026, driven by long-standing disputes over production quotas limiting its expanded output capacity, has already tested OPEC cohesion alongside Angola’s 2024 exit. Iraq signaled quota dissatisfaction in June amid Iran-related export disruptions but officially reaffirmed membership while seeking adjustments. Venezuela has weighed departure in internal deliberations reported since August, yet analysts describe any move as structurally possible but not imminent given modest current output and limited near-term quota pressure. OPEC+ members have since focused on quota reviews and 2027 baselines rather than further fragmentation, supporting trader consensus that additional exits this year remain unlikely.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$177,339Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent UAE withdrawal effective May 2026, driven by long-standing disputes over production quotas limiting its expanded output capacity, has already tested OPEC cohesion alongside Angola’s 2024 exit. Iraq signaled quota dissatisfaction in June amid Iran-related export disruptions but officially reaffirmed membership while seeking adjustments. Venezuela has weighed departure in internal deliberations reported since August, yet analysts describe any move as structurally possible but not imminent given modest current output and limited near-term quota pressure. OPEC+ members have since focused on quota reviews and 2027 baselines rather than further fragmentation, supporting trader consensus that additional exits this year remain unlikely.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$177,339Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent UAE withdrawal effective May 2026, driven by long-standing disputes over production quotas limiting its expanded output capacity, has already tested OPEC cohesion alongside Angola’s 2024 exit. Iraq signaled quota dissatisfaction in June amid Iran-related export disruptions but officially reaffirmed membership while seeking adjustments. Venezuela has weighed departure in internal deliberations reported since August, yet analysts describe any move as structurally possible but not imminent given modest current output and limited near-term quota pressure. OPEC+ members have since focused on quota reviews and 2027 baselines rather than further fragmentation, supporting trader consensus that additional exits this year remain unlikely.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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