**The low implied probabilities for a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 reflect trader consensus that technical, budgetary, and policy barriers continue to outweigh announced intentions.** The United States has maintained its 1992 testing moratorium, with the Nevada National Security Site's underground explosive testing capability assessed as requiring months to years of preparation under current NNSA readiness plans. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with other nations prompted statements from officials highlighting concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, including a February 2026 disclosure of alleged Chinese subcritical or low-yield tests. New START's expiration earlier in 2026 has removed formal limits, yet no funding surge or site activation for a full-yield test has materialized. Analysts note that shifting to explosive testing would demand major resource reallocation from stockpile stewardship programs, with political and diplomatic costs likely deterring near-term action absent further escalation signals.
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$768,767 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
30 September 2026
1%
31 Desember 2026
4%
$768,767 Vol.
30 September 2026
$57,189 Vol.
1%
31 Desember 2026
$50,767 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**The low implied probabilities for a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 reflect trader consensus that technical, budgetary, and policy barriers continue to outweigh announced intentions.** The United States has maintained its 1992 testing moratorium, with the Nevada National Security Site's underground explosive testing capability assessed as requiring months to years of preparation under current NNSA readiness plans. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with other nations prompted statements from officials highlighting concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, including a February 2026 disclosure of alleged Chinese subcritical or low-yield tests. New START's expiration earlier in 2026 has removed formal limits, yet no funding surge or site activation for a full-yield test has materialized. Analysts note that shifting to explosive testing would demand major resource reallocation from stockpile stewardship programs, with political and diplomatic costs likely deterring near-term action absent further escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$768,767Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**The low implied probabilities for a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 reflect trader consensus that technical, budgetary, and policy barriers continue to outweigh announced intentions.** The United States has maintained its 1992 testing moratorium, with the Nevada National Security Site's underground explosive testing capability assessed as requiring months to years of preparation under current NNSA readiness plans. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with other nations prompted statements from officials highlighting concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, including a February 2026 disclosure of alleged Chinese subcritical or low-yield tests. New START's expiration earlier in 2026 has removed formal limits, yet no funding surge or site activation for a full-yield test has materialized. Analysts note that shifting to explosive testing would demand major resource reallocation from stockpile stewardship programs, with political and diplomatic costs likely deterring near-term action absent further escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$768,767Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The low implied probabilities for a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 reflect trader consensus that technical, budgetary, and policy barriers continue to outweigh announced intentions.** The United States has maintained its 1992 testing moratorium, with the Nevada National Security Site's underground explosive testing capability assessed as requiring months to years of preparation under current NNSA readiness plans. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with other nations prompted statements from officials highlighting concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, including a February 2026 disclosure of alleged Chinese subcritical or low-yield tests. New START's expiration earlier in 2026 has removed formal limits, yet no funding surge or site activation for a full-yield test has materialized. Analysts note that shifting to explosive testing would demand major resource reallocation from stockpile stewardship programs, with political and diplomatic costs likely deterring near-term action absent further escalation signals.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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