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icon for How strong will Hurricane Polo be?

How strong will Hurricane Polo be?

icon for How strong will Hurricane Polo be?

How strong will Hurricane Polo be?

Category 4 51%

Category 5 41%

Category 3 21%

Category 2 3.0%

Polymarket
BARU

Category 4 51%

Category 5 41%

Category 3 21%

Category 2 3.0%

Polymarket
BARU

Category 1 or weaker

$172 Vol.

1%

Category 2

$51 Vol.

3%

Category 3

$0 Vol.

21%

Category 4

$80 Vol.

47%

Category 5

$0 Vol.

41%

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm. The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category. Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point. If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources. A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.Recent NHC observations show Hurricane Polo rapidly intensifying off southwestern Mexico, with sustained winds reaching 95–110 kt as of early September 22. Exceptional ocean heat content and minimal wind shear have fueled this strengthening, consistent with SHIPS rapid intensification indices exceeding 80 percent probability for a 40+ kt increase within 24 hours. Official guidance peaks the storm at 140 kt (Category 5) before potential eyewall replacement cycles and rising easterly shear introduce intensity fluctuations. These model consensus details and observed structural improvements explain the near-even market-implied odds between Category 4 and 5 outcomes, while lower probabilities for Category 3 or weaker reflect the strong environmental support for major hurricane status through midweek.

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.

The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category.

Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.

This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.

If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources.

A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm. The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category. Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point. If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources. A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.
Volume
$303
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 16, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 21, 2026, 5:11 PM ET

Sumber Resolusi

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm. The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category. Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point. If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources. A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.Recent NHC observations show Hurricane Polo rapidly intensifying off southwestern Mexico, with sustained winds reaching 95–110 kt as of early September 22. Exceptional ocean heat content and minimal wind shear have fueled this strengthening, consistent with SHIPS rapid intensification indices exceeding 80 percent probability for a 40+ kt increase within 24 hours. Official guidance peaks the storm at 140 kt (Category 5) before potential eyewall replacement cycles and rising easterly shear introduce intensity fluctuations. These model consensus details and observed structural improvements explain the near-even market-implied odds between Category 4 and 5 outcomes, while lower probabilities for Category 3 or weaker reflect the strong environmental support for major hurricane status through midweek.

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.

The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category.

Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.

This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.

If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources.

A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm. The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category. Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point. If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources. A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.
Volume
$303
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 16, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 21, 2026, 5:11 PM ET

Sumber Resolusi

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"How strong will Hurricane Polo be?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 5 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Category 4" di 47%, diikuti oleh "Category 5" di 41%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 47¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 47% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"How strong will Hurricane Polo be?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Sep 21, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "How strong will Hurricane Polo be?," jelajahi 5 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "How strong will Hurricane Polo be?" adalah "Category 4" di 47%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 47% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Category 5" di 41%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "How strong will Hurricane Polo be?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.