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icon for Apakah AS akan secara resmi menyatakan perang terhadap Iran dengan...?
Geopolitik·AS - Iran

Apakah AS akan secara resmi menyatakan perang terhadap Iran dengan...?

icon for Apakah AS akan secara resmi menyatakan perang terhadap Iran dengan...?
Geopolitik·AS - Iran

Apakah AS akan secara resmi menyatakan perang terhadap Iran dengan...?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$7,815,666 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$7,815,666 Vol.

Polymarket

31 Desember

$843,032 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, including US strikes on Iranian targets and shipping in early September 2026, sustain elevated tensions without a formal declaration of war. A fragile June 2026 memorandum of understanding and intermittent technical talks in Switzerland and elsewhere have produced temporary stand-downs, yet violations by both sides, Houthi captures of strategic islands, and Iranian responses targeting regional allies have prompted renewed US operations. Oil price spikes above $100 per barrel and domestic political framing of the conflict as an extension of counterterrorism efforts highlight economic and strategic stakes. Congressional war powers resolutions and historical reliance on limited strikes rather than Article I declarations continue to shape the path to any official war authorization.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,815,666
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, including US strikes on Iranian targets and shipping in early September 2026, sustain elevated tensions without a formal declaration of war. A fragile June 2026 memorandum of understanding and intermittent technical talks in Switzerland and elsewhere have produced temporary stand-downs, yet violations by both sides, Houthi captures of strategic islands, and Iranian responses targeting regional allies have prompted renewed US operations. Oil price spikes above $100 per barrel and domestic political framing of the conflict as an extension of counterterrorism efforts highlight economic and strategic stakes. Congressional war powers resolutions and historical reliance on limited strikes rather than Article I declarations continue to shape the path to any official war authorization.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,815,666
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Apakah AS akan secara resmi menyatakan perang terhadap Iran dengan...?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 3 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "31 Desember" di 2%, diikuti oleh "31 Maret" di 0%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 2¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 2% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Apakah AS akan secara resmi menyatakan perang terhadap Iran dengan...?" telah menghasilkan $7.8 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 12, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Apakah AS akan secara resmi menyatakan perang terhadap Iran dengan...?," jelajahi 3 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Ini adalah pasar yang sangat terbuka. Pemimpin saat ini untuk "Apakah AS akan secara resmi menyatakan perang terhadap Iran dengan...?" adalah "31 Desember" di hanya 2%, dengan "31 Maret" mengejar ketat di 0%. Tanpa hasil yang menguasai mayoritas kuat, trader melihat ini sebagai sangat tidak pasti, yang bisa menghadirkan peluang trading unik. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time, jadi tandai halaman ini untuk menyaksikan bagaimana probabilitas berkembang.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Apakah AS akan secara resmi menyatakan perang terhadap Iran dengan...?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.