Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 53.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by year-end 2026, reflecting expectations of a continued inflation-linked crawling peg under the Central Bank's January 2026 band regime, where monthly adjustments track prior inflation readings around 29-30% annually per recent surveys. From the current rate near 1358, this anticipates roughly 18% devaluation amid persistent price pressures, despite aggressive BCRA dollar purchases—including a record $281 million single-session buy last week—to build reserves and ease outflows. Recent FX rule tweaks for investors signal policy fine-tuning, while banks warn of up to 27% peso weakening; key catalysts include April inflation data and ongoing reserve accumulation ahead of 2027 debt maturities. Lower brackets like 1450-1499 (24.2%) capture moderated devaluation scenarios if disinflation accelerates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato1600.00+ 51%
1450.00–1499.99 20.9%
1400.00–1449.99 17.2%
1300.00–1349.99 11.8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
<1250.00
3%
1250.00–1299.99
4%
1300.00–1349.99
11%
1350.00–1399.99
13%
1400.00–1449.99
10%
1450.00–1499.99
24%
1500.00–1549.99
11%
1550.00–1599.99
8%
1600.00+
51%
1600.00+ 51%
1450.00–1499.99 20.9%
1400.00–1449.99 17.2%
1300.00–1349.99 11.8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
<1250.00
$0 Vol.
3%
1250.00–1299.99
$377 Vol.
4%
1300.00–1349.99
$0 Vol.
11%
1350.00–1399.99
$375 Vol.
13%
1400.00–1449.99
$664 Vol.
10%
1450.00–1499.99
$725 Vol.
24%
1500.00–1549.99
$672 Vol.
11%
1550.00–1599.99
$409 Vol.
8%
1600.00+
$1,357 Vol.
51%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 53.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by year-end 2026, reflecting expectations of a continued inflation-linked crawling peg under the Central Bank's January 2026 band regime, where monthly adjustments track prior inflation readings around 29-30% annually per recent surveys. From the current rate near 1358, this anticipates roughly 18% devaluation amid persistent price pressures, despite aggressive BCRA dollar purchases—including a record $281 million single-session buy last week—to build reserves and ease outflows. Recent FX rule tweaks for investors signal policy fine-tuning, while banks warn of up to 27% peso weakening; key catalysts include April inflation data and ongoing reserve accumulation ahead of 2027 debt maturities. Lower brackets like 1450-1499 (24.2%) capture moderated devaluation scenarios if disinflation accelerates.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercato aperto: Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Volume
$4,578Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 53.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by year-end 2026, reflecting expectations of a continued inflation-linked crawling peg under the Central Bank's January 2026 band regime, where monthly adjustments track prior inflation readings around 29-30% annually per recent surveys. From the current rate near 1358, this anticipates roughly 18% devaluation amid persistent price pressures, despite aggressive BCRA dollar purchases—including a record $281 million single-session buy last week—to build reserves and ease outflows. Recent FX rule tweaks for investors signal policy fine-tuning, while banks warn of up to 27% peso weakening; key catalysts include April inflation data and ongoing reserve accumulation ahead of 2027 debt maturities. Lower brackets like 1450-1499 (24.2%) capture moderated devaluation scenarios if disinflation accelerates.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$4,578Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 53.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by year-end 2026, reflecting expectations of a continued inflation-linked crawling peg under the Central Bank's January 2026 band regime, where monthly adjustments track prior inflation readings around 29-30% annually per recent surveys. From the current rate near 1358, this anticipates roughly 18% devaluation amid persistent price pressures, despite aggressive BCRA dollar purchases—including a record $281 million single-session buy last week—to build reserves and ease outflows. Recent FX rule tweaks for investors signal policy fine-tuning, while banks warn of up to 27% peso weakening; key catalysts include April inflation data and ongoing reserve accumulation ahead of 2027 debt maturities. Lower brackets like 1450-1499 (24.2%) capture moderated devaluation scenarios if disinflation accelerates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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