Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding lead in the Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, evidenced by Donald Trump's 30-point margin in the 2024 presidential vote and historical voting patterns. Cotton, seeking a third term, secured his party's nomination easily in March primaries while facing a political newcomer in Democrat Hallie Shoffner, a farmer who won her primary but trails significantly in polling averages showing Cotton ahead by 6 to 16 points. Recent campaign attacks on Shoffner's prior comments about immigration enforcement have further highlighted the challenger's vulnerabilities in this solidly Republican environment. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though late developments such as unexpected national shifts, candidate health issues, or major scandals could theoretically narrow the gap before the November 3 election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni del Senato dell'Arkansas
Vincitore delle elezioni del Senato dell'Arkansas
$19,090 Vol.
$19,090 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Tom Cotton (R)
95%
Hallie Shoffner (D)
5%
$19,090 Vol.
$19,090 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Tom Cotton (R)
$14,505 Vol.
95%
Hallie Shoffner (D)
$4,585 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding lead in the Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, evidenced by Donald Trump's 30-point margin in the 2024 presidential vote and historical voting patterns. Cotton, seeking a third term, secured his party's nomination easily in March primaries while facing a political newcomer in Democrat Hallie Shoffner, a farmer who won her primary but trails significantly in polling averages showing Cotton ahead by 6 to 16 points. Recent campaign attacks on Shoffner's prior comments about immigration enforcement have further highlighted the challenger's vulnerabilities in this solidly Republican environment. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though late developments such as unexpected national shifts, candidate health issues, or major scandals could theoretically narrow the gap before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$19,090Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETRisolutore
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding lead in the Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, evidenced by Donald Trump's 30-point margin in the 2024 presidential vote and historical voting patterns. Cotton, seeking a third term, secured his party's nomination easily in March primaries while facing a political newcomer in Democrat Hallie Shoffner, a farmer who won her primary but trails significantly in polling averages showing Cotton ahead by 6 to 16 points. Recent campaign attacks on Shoffner's prior comments about immigration enforcement have further highlighted the challenger's vulnerabilities in this solidly Republican environment. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though late developments such as unexpected national shifts, candidate health issues, or major scandals could theoretically narrow the gap before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$19,090Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETRisolutore
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding lead in the Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, evidenced by Donald Trump's 30-point margin in the 2024 presidential vote and historical voting patterns. Cotton, seeking a third term, secured his party's nomination easily in March primaries while facing a political newcomer in Democrat Hallie Shoffner, a farmer who won her primary but trails significantly in polling averages showing Cotton ahead by 6 to 16 points. Recent campaign attacks on Shoffner's prior comments about immigration enforcement have further highlighted the challenger's vulnerabilities in this solidly Republican environment. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though late developments such as unexpected national shifts, candidate health issues, or major scandals could theoretically narrow the gap before the November 3 election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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