Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford faces Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green in Arkansas’s 1st Congressional District on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+23 partisan voting index and consistent Republican dominance—Crawford secured 72.9 percent in 2024—underpin trader consensus reflected in the 92.5 percent Republican probability. Crawford advanced without primary opposition, while fundraising and structural advantages continue to favor the incumbent. A major scandal, sudden health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current candidate positioning leave limited pathways for an upset.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera AR-01
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera AR-01
$18,687 Vol.
$18,687 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
93%
Partito Democratico
6%
$18,687 Vol.
$18,687 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
$11,115 Vol.
93%
Partito Democratico
$7,571 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford faces Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green in Arkansas’s 1st Congressional District on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+23 partisan voting index and consistent Republican dominance—Crawford secured 72.9 percent in 2024—underpin trader consensus reflected in the 92.5 percent Republican probability. Crawford advanced without primary opposition, while fundraising and structural advantages continue to favor the incumbent. A major scandal, sudden health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current candidate positioning leave limited pathways for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$18,687Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford faces Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green in Arkansas’s 1st Congressional District on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+23 partisan voting index and consistent Republican dominance—Crawford secured 72.9 percent in 2024—underpin trader consensus reflected in the 92.5 percent Republican probability. Crawford advanced without primary opposition, while fundraising and structural advantages continue to favor the incumbent. A major scandal, sudden health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current candidate positioning leave limited pathways for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$18,687Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford faces Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green in Arkansas’s 1st Congressional District on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+23 partisan voting index and consistent Republican dominance—Crawford secured 72.9 percent in 2024—underpin trader consensus reflected in the 92.5 percent Republican probability. Crawford advanced without primary opposition, while fundraising and structural advantages continue to favor the incumbent. A major scandal, sudden health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current candidate positioning leave limited pathways for an upset.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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