Incumbent Republican French Hill seeks a seventh term in Arkansas’s 2nd district, which Trump carried by 8.5 points in 2024 and most forecasters rate Likely or Solid Republican. Hill defeated a primary challenger in March, while Democrat Chris Jones, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee, cleared his primary. Trader pricing at 87% Republican reflects the district’s underlying partisan tilt and Hill’s incumbency advantage, tempered by an August Hendrix College poll showing Jones ahead 48-44 among likely voters and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s decision to target the seat. National midterm dynamics and pockets of suburban dissatisfaction around Little Rock keep a narrow Democratic path open, though models incorporating fundamentals project Hill winning by double digits.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAR-02 House Election Winner
AR-02 House Election Winner
$12,244 Vol.
$12,244 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
87%
Democratic Party
14%
$12,244 Vol.
$12,244 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
$4,224 Vol.
87%
Democratic Party
$8,020 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill seeks a seventh term in Arkansas’s 2nd district, which Trump carried by 8.5 points in 2024 and most forecasters rate Likely or Solid Republican. Hill defeated a primary challenger in March, while Democrat Chris Jones, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee, cleared his primary. Trader pricing at 87% Republican reflects the district’s underlying partisan tilt and Hill’s incumbency advantage, tempered by an August Hendrix College poll showing Jones ahead 48-44 among likely voters and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s decision to target the seat. National midterm dynamics and pockets of suburban dissatisfaction around Little Rock keep a narrow Democratic path open, though models incorporating fundamentals project Hill winning by double digits.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$12,244Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill seeks a seventh term in Arkansas’s 2nd district, which Trump carried by 8.5 points in 2024 and most forecasters rate Likely or Solid Republican. Hill defeated a primary challenger in March, while Democrat Chris Jones, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee, cleared his primary. Trader pricing at 87% Republican reflects the district’s underlying partisan tilt and Hill’s incumbency advantage, tempered by an August Hendrix College poll showing Jones ahead 48-44 among likely voters and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s decision to target the seat. National midterm dynamics and pockets of suburban dissatisfaction around Little Rock keep a narrow Democratic path open, though models incorporating fundamentals project Hill winning by double digits.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,244Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican French Hill seeks a seventh term in Arkansas’s 2nd district, which Trump carried by 8.5 points in 2024 and most forecasters rate Likely or Solid Republican. Hill defeated a primary challenger in March, while Democrat Chris Jones, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee, cleared his primary. Trader pricing at 87% Republican reflects the district’s underlying partisan tilt and Hill’s incumbency advantage, tempered by an August Hendrix College poll showing Jones ahead 48-44 among likely voters and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s decision to target the seat. National midterm dynamics and pockets of suburban dissatisfaction around Little Rock keep a narrow Democratic path open, though models incorporating fundamentals project Hill winning by double digits.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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