Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at 0.75% for the April 27-28 monetary policy meeting, driven by Governor Kazuo Ueda's April 13 remarks urging vigilance amid Middle East tensions and surging oil prices that exacerbate inflation while threatening growth. A protracted Iran conflict has spiked oil +50% recently, prompting BoJ to consider upward revisions to its fiscal 2026 inflation forecast above 1.9% alongside downgraded GDP outlooks, creating a stagflation dilemma that favors caution over a hike. This follows the March hold amid modest real wage gains (1.9% YoY February) and accommodative financial conditions, with JGB 10-year yields near 2.4%; a 25 basis point increase carries just 8.5% odds pending fresh data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNessun cambiamento 90%
Aumento di 25 punti base 8%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base <1%
Diminuzione dei tassi <1%
$703,106 Vol.
$703,106 Vol.
28 apr 2026
Diminuzione dei tassi
<1%
Nessun cambiamento
90%
Aumento di 25 punti base
8%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
<1%
Nessun cambiamento 90%
Aumento di 25 punti base 8%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base <1%
Diminuzione dei tassi <1%
$703,106 Vol.
$703,106 Vol.
28 apr 2026
Diminuzione dei tassi
$160,877 Vol.
<1%
Nessun cambiamento
$141,240 Vol.
90%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$147,985 Vol.
8%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$253,048 Vol.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at 0.75% for the April 27-28 monetary policy meeting, driven by Governor Kazuo Ueda's April 13 remarks urging vigilance amid Middle East tensions and surging oil prices that exacerbate inflation while threatening growth. A protracted Iran conflict has spiked oil +50% recently, prompting BoJ to consider upward revisions to its fiscal 2026 inflation forecast above 1.9% alongside downgraded GDP outlooks, creating a stagflation dilemma that favors caution over a hike. This follows the March hold amid modest real wage gains (1.9% YoY February) and accommodative financial conditions, with JGB 10-year yields near 2.4%; a 25 basis point increase carries just 8.5% odds pending fresh data.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$703,106Data di fine
28 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at 0.75% for the April 27-28 monetary policy meeting, driven by Governor Kazuo Ueda's April 13 remarks urging vigilance amid Middle East tensions and surging oil prices that exacerbate inflation while threatening growth. A protracted Iran conflict has spiked oil +50% recently, prompting BoJ to consider upward revisions to its fiscal 2026 inflation forecast above 1.9% alongside downgraded GDP outlooks, creating a stagflation dilemma that favors caution over a hike. This follows the March hold amid modest real wage gains (1.9% YoY February) and accommodative financial conditions, with JGB 10-year yields near 2.4%; a 25 basis point increase carries just 8.5% odds pending fresh data.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$703,106Data di fine
28 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at 0.75% for the April 27-28 monetary policy meeting, driven by Governor Kazuo Ueda's April 13 remarks urging vigilance amid Middle East tensions and surging oil prices that exacerbate inflation while threatening growth. A protracted Iran conflict has spiked oil +50% recently, prompting BoJ to consider upward revisions to its fiscal 2026 inflation forecast above 1.9% alongside downgraded GDP outlooks, creating a stagflation dilemma that favors caution over a hike. This follows the March hold amid modest real wage gains (1.9% YoY February) and accommodative financial conditions, with JGB 10-year yields near 2.4%; a 25 basis point increase carries just 8.5% odds pending fresh data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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