Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise, driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a robust labor market, has anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy at the July FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate already in the 3.50%-3.75% range, market-implied odds reflect broad consensus that the Fed will maintain its restrictive stance to combat persistent inflation pressures rather than ease or tighten further. This positioning aligns with economist surveys indicating rates will likely hold through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC decision, June employment and inflation releases, and any shifts in geopolitical or growth data that could alter the inflation trajectory before the July 28-29 meeting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNessun cambiamento 93%
Aumento di 25 punti base 4.0%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 3.0%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$9,758,470 Vol.
$9,758,470 Vol.
29 lug 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
3%
Nessun cambiamento
93%
Aumento di 25 punti base
4%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
<1%
Nessun cambiamento 93%
Aumento di 25 punti base 4.0%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 3.0%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$9,758,470 Vol.
$9,758,470 Vol.
29 lug 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$1,409,206 Vol.
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
$1,067,675 Vol.
3%
Nessun cambiamento
$1,623,255 Vol.
93%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$4,100,250 Vol.
4%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$1,558,115 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise, driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a robust labor market, has anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy at the July FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate already in the 3.50%-3.75% range, market-implied odds reflect broad consensus that the Fed will maintain its restrictive stance to combat persistent inflation pressures rather than ease or tighten further. This positioning aligns with economist surveys indicating rates will likely hold through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC decision, June employment and inflation releases, and any shifts in geopolitical or growth data that could alter the inflation trajectory before the July 28-29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$9,758,470Data di fine
29 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise, driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a robust labor market, has anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy at the July FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate already in the 3.50%-3.75% range, market-implied odds reflect broad consensus that the Fed will maintain its restrictive stance to combat persistent inflation pressures rather than ease or tighten further. This positioning aligns with economist surveys indicating rates will likely hold through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC decision, June employment and inflation releases, and any shifts in geopolitical or growth data that could alter the inflation trajectory before the July 28-29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$9,758,470Data di fine
29 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise, driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a robust labor market, has anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy at the July FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate already in the 3.50%-3.75% range, market-implied odds reflect broad consensus that the Fed will maintain its restrictive stance to combat persistent inflation pressures rather than ease or tighten further. This positioning aligns with economist surveys indicating rates will likely hold through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC decision, June employment and inflation releases, and any shifts in geopolitical or growth data that could alter the inflation trajectory before the July 28-29 meeting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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