Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for no change at the Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 meeting, reflected in the 73.5% implied probability. Recent May data showed headline CPI near 3.8-4.2% year-over-year, boosted by energy prices, while nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, keeping the policy rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. FOMC communications and the incoming chair’s first meeting have reinforced a data-dependent stance with limited room for easing. Modest probabilities for a 25-basis-point hike or cut capture the balance between upside inflation risks and any softening in employment or growth indicators before the September decision window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNo change 74%
25 bps increase 13%
25 bps decrease 11.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.6%
$316,577 Vol.
$316,577 Vol.
16 set 2026
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
11%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
13%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 74%
25 bps increase 13%
25 bps decrease 11.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.6%
$316,577 Vol.
$316,577 Vol.
16 set 2026
50+ bps decrease
$54,709 Vol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$64,108 Vol.
11%
No change
$86,918 Vol.
74%
25 bps increase
$60,422 Vol.
13%
50+ bps increase
$50,455 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for no change at the Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 meeting, reflected in the 73.5% implied probability. Recent May data showed headline CPI near 3.8-4.2% year-over-year, boosted by energy prices, while nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, keeping the policy rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. FOMC communications and the incoming chair’s first meeting have reinforced a data-dependent stance with limited room for easing. Modest probabilities for a 25-basis-point hike or cut capture the balance between upside inflation risks and any softening in employment or growth indicators before the September decision window.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$316,577Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for no change at the Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 meeting, reflected in the 73.5% implied probability. Recent May data showed headline CPI near 3.8-4.2% year-over-year, boosted by energy prices, while nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, keeping the policy rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. FOMC communications and the incoming chair’s first meeting have reinforced a data-dependent stance with limited room for easing. Modest probabilities for a 25-basis-point hike or cut capture the balance between upside inflation risks and any softening in employment or growth indicators before the September decision window.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$316,577Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for no change at the Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 meeting, reflected in the 73.5% implied probability. Recent May data showed headline CPI near 3.8-4.2% year-over-year, boosted by energy prices, while nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, keeping the policy rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. FOMC communications and the incoming chair’s first meeting have reinforced a data-dependent stance with limited room for easing. Modest probabilities for a 25-basis-point hike or cut capture the balance between upside inflation risks and any softening in employment or growth indicators before the September decision window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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