Florida's 19th congressional district features an open Republican-held seat following incumbent Byron Donalds' retirement to pursue the governorship, creating a crowded GOP primary on August 18 with candidates including Jim Schwartzel, Catalina Lauf, Jim Oberweis, and Chris Collins. Recent endorsements for Lauf from sitting members and super PAC activity, alongside polling showing a tight primary contest and substantial fundraising across contenders, sustain uncertainty over the eventual nominee's strength and appeal. This volatility, combined with the district's strong historical Republican lean and limited Democratic primary activity, keeps general election margin probabilities distributed across narrow and wider victory ranges while capping the implied chance of a Democratic win near even-money levels. Scheduled primary results and subsequent nominee positioning will likely drive separation in trader assessments ahead of the November general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoFL-19 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera
FL-19 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera
Repubblicano 25-30% 37%
Repubblicano 35%+ 37%
Repubblicano 30-35% 37%
Repubblicano 20-25% 37%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano 35%+
37%
Repubblicano 30-35%
37%
Repubblicano 25-30%
37%
Repubblicano 20-25%
37%
Repubblicano 15-20%
37%
Repubblicano 10-15%
37%
Repubblicano 5-10%
37%
Repubblicano 0-5%
37%
Vittoria del Democratico
37%
Repubblicano 25-30% 37%
Repubblicano 35%+ 37%
Repubblicano 30-35% 37%
Repubblicano 20-25% 37%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano 35%+
$0 Vol.
37%
Repubblicano 30-35%
$0 Vol.
37%
Repubblicano 25-30%
$0 Vol.
37%
Repubblicano 20-25%
$0 Vol.
37%
Repubblicano 15-20%
$0 Vol.
37%
Repubblicano 10-15%
$0 Vol.
37%
Repubblicano 5-10%
$0 Vol.
37%
Repubblicano 0-5%
$0 Vol.
37%
Vittoria del Democratico
$0 Vol.
37%
The 2026 FL-19 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-19 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Florida's 19th congressional district features an open Republican-held seat following incumbent Byron Donalds' retirement to pursue the governorship, creating a crowded GOP primary on August 18 with candidates including Jim Schwartzel, Catalina Lauf, Jim Oberweis, and Chris Collins. Recent endorsements for Lauf from sitting members and super PAC activity, alongside polling showing a tight primary contest and substantial fundraising across contenders, sustain uncertainty over the eventual nominee's strength and appeal. This volatility, combined with the district's strong historical Republican lean and limited Democratic primary activity, keeps general election margin probabilities distributed across narrow and wider victory ranges while capping the implied chance of a Democratic win near even-money levels. Scheduled primary results and subsequent nominee positioning will likely drive separation in trader assessments ahead of the November general election.
The 2026 FL-19 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-19 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-19 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 7, 2026, 4:19 PM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 7, 2026, 4:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 FL-19 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-19 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Florida's 19th congressional district features an open Republican-held seat following incumbent Byron Donalds' retirement to pursue the governorship, creating a crowded GOP primary on August 18 with candidates including Jim Schwartzel, Catalina Lauf, Jim Oberweis, and Chris Collins. Recent endorsements for Lauf from sitting members and super PAC activity, alongside polling showing a tight primary contest and substantial fundraising across contenders, sustain uncertainty over the eventual nominee's strength and appeal. This volatility, combined with the district's strong historical Republican lean and limited Democratic primary activity, keeps general election margin probabilities distributed across narrow and wider victory ranges while capping the implied chance of a Democratic win near even-money levels. Scheduled primary results and subsequent nominee positioning will likely drive separation in trader assessments ahead of the November general election.
The 2026 FL-19 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-19 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-19 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 7, 2026, 4:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Florida's 19th congressional district features an open Republican-held seat following incumbent Byron Donalds' retirement to pursue the governorship, creating a crowded GOP primary on August 18 with candidates including Jim Schwartzel, Catalina Lauf, Jim Oberweis, and Chris Collins. Recent endorsements for Lauf from sitting members and super PAC activity, alongside polling showing a tight primary contest and substantial fundraising across contenders, sustain uncertainty over the eventual nominee's strength and appeal. This volatility, combined with the district's strong historical Republican lean and limited Democratic primary activity, keeps general election margin probabilities distributed across narrow and wider victory ranges while capping the implied chance of a Democratic win near even-money levels. Scheduled primary results and subsequent nominee positioning will likely drive separation in trader assessments ahead of the November general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-20 House election by 50%-55%?
38%
Il candidato del Partito Repubblicano vincerà le elezioni della Camera del 2026 nel distretto FL-18 con un margine del 25%-30%?
38%
Sì
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-01 House election by 30%-35%?
38%
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti