Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C as the highest temperature in Beijing on May 6 at 100% implied probability, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observational data from key stations showing midday peaks of 25–26°C amid persistent cloud cover and light northerly breezes that advect cooler air and limit solar heating. Official bulletins report a maximum near 25°C, aligning with World Meteorological Centre Beijing's 24–25°C forecast and AccuWeather models at around 27°C (81°F), converging on 26°C as the measured outcome under stable atmospheric conditions typical for early May. Recent $20,000+ volume on this outcome reflects confidence in low UV index and wind shear preventing surges. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for intensified insolation, though model ensembles indicate minimal risk as the day progresses toward evening cooldown. Final CMA high-temperature confirmation expected soon.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Beijing on May 6?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 6?
26°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$122,585 Vol.
$122,585 Vol.
6 mag 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$122,585 Vol.
$122,585 Vol.
6 mag 2026
23°C or below
$10,357 Vol.
No
24°C
$6,554 Vol.
No
25°C
$29,203 Vol.
No
26°C
$21,746 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$15,744 Vol.
No
28°C
$13,266 Vol.
No
29°C
$11,059 Vol.
No
30°C
$6,249 Vol.
No
31°C
$2,845 Vol.
No
32°C
$3,623 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$1,940 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C as the highest temperature in Beijing on May 6 at 100% implied probability, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observational data from key stations showing midday peaks of 25–26°C amid persistent cloud cover and light northerly breezes that advect cooler air and limit solar heating. Official bulletins report a maximum near 25°C, aligning with World Meteorological Centre Beijing's 24–25°C forecast and AccuWeather models at around 27°C (81°F), converging on 26°C as the measured outcome under stable atmospheric conditions typical for early May. Recent $20,000+ volume on this outcome reflects confidence in low UV index and wind shear preventing surges. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for intensified insolation, though model ensembles indicate minimal risk as the day progresses toward evening cooldown. Final CMA high-temperature confirmation expected soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 4, 2026, 12:41 PM ET
Volume
$122,585Data di fine
6 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 12:41 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C as the highest temperature in Beijing on May 6 at 100% implied probability, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observational data from key stations showing midday peaks of 25–26°C amid persistent cloud cover and light northerly breezes that advect cooler air and limit solar heating. Official bulletins report a maximum near 25°C, aligning with World Meteorological Centre Beijing's 24–25°C forecast and AccuWeather models at around 27°C (81°F), converging on 26°C as the measured outcome under stable atmospheric conditions typical for early May. Recent $20,000+ volume on this outcome reflects confidence in low UV index and wind shear preventing surges. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for intensified insolation, though model ensembles indicate minimal risk as the day progresses toward evening cooldown. Final CMA high-temperature confirmation expected soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$122,585Data di fine
6 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 12:41 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C as the highest temperature in Beijing on May 6 at 100% implied probability, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observational data from key stations showing midday peaks of 25–26°C amid persistent cloud cover and light northerly breezes that advect cooler air and limit solar heating. Official bulletins report a maximum near 25°C, aligning with World Meteorological Centre Beijing's 24–25°C forecast and AccuWeather models at around 27°C (81°F), converging on 26°C as the measured outcome under stable atmospheric conditions typical for early May. Recent $20,000+ volume on this outcome reflects confidence in low UV index and wind shear preventing surges. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for intensified insolation, though model ensembles indicate minimal risk as the day progresses toward evening cooldown. Final CMA high-temperature confirmation expected soon.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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