Recent Korea Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a cloudy regime with light northeasterly flow over Busan on August 16, limiting afternoon heating while typical August sea-breeze effects and possible isolated showers keep maxima near the 29–31 °C climatological range. These factors create tight differentiation among the leading 26–28 °C outcomes, as modest increases in cloud cover or precipitation timing could cap readings at 27 °C or allow brief clearing to support 29 °C. Traders weigh the narrow historical variability in daily August highs against the latest model consensus, which shows limited spread but acknowledges forecast uncertainty in coastal moderation two days ahead.