Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and international models indicate moderating maximum temperatures on August 14 amid increasing cloud cover, showers, and a shift from the current heatwave influenced by a lingering monsoon trough. With highs recently reaching 34–36°C under clear, humid conditions, expected rainfall and reduced solar insolation should cap the daily peak near 31–32°C, aligning with market-implied probabilities. Historical August averages hover around 32°C, but day-to-day variability from steering flows and convective activity creates the narrow spread between 30°C and 33°C outcomes. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution based on official Observatory readings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Hong Kong il 14 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Hong Kong il 14 agosto?
31°C 41%
32°C 33%
30°C 16%
33°C 9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
14 ago 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
6%
30°C
16%
31°C
41%
32°C
33%
33°C
9%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
31°C 41%
32°C 33%
30°C 16%
33°C 9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
14 ago 2026
26°C or below
$300 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$144 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$64 Vol.
1%
29°C
$568 Vol.
6%
30°C
$265 Vol.
16%
31°C
$624 Vol.
41%
32°C
$126 Vol.
33%
33°C
$100 Vol.
9%
34°C
$117 Vol.
2%
35°C
$92 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$151 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and international models indicate moderating maximum temperatures on August 14 amid increasing cloud cover, showers, and a shift from the current heatwave influenced by a lingering monsoon trough. With highs recently reaching 34–36°C under clear, humid conditions, expected rainfall and reduced solar insolation should cap the daily peak near 31–32°C, aligning with market-implied probabilities. Historical August averages hover around 32°C, but day-to-day variability from steering flows and convective activity creates the narrow spread between 30°C and 33°C outcomes. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution based on official Observatory readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$2,539Data di fine
14 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and international models indicate moderating maximum temperatures on August 14 amid increasing cloud cover, showers, and a shift from the current heatwave influenced by a lingering monsoon trough. With highs recently reaching 34–36°C under clear, humid conditions, expected rainfall and reduced solar insolation should cap the daily peak near 31–32°C, aligning with market-implied probabilities. Historical August averages hover around 32°C, but day-to-day variability from steering flows and convective activity creates the narrow spread between 30°C and 33°C outcomes. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution based on official Observatory readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,539Data di fine
14 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and international models indicate moderating maximum temperatures on August 14 amid increasing cloud cover, showers, and a shift from the current heatwave influenced by a lingering monsoon trough. With highs recently reaching 34–36°C under clear, humid conditions, expected rainfall and reduced solar insolation should cap the daily peak near 31–32°C, aligning with market-implied probabilities. Historical August averages hover around 32°C, but day-to-day variability from steering flows and convective activity creates the narrow spread between 30°C and 33°C outcomes. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution based on official Observatory readings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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