**High pressure building over the UK is driving the current forecast for sunny, settled conditions in London on August 12, supporting maximum temperatures centered around 30–32°C.** Official Met Office guidance currently projects a peak of 32°C under clear skies with negligible rain risk (<5%) and light winds, consistent with a warming trend that has lifted daytime highs from the mid-20s earlier in the week. Ensemble model outputs show limited spread in this short-range window, though small differences in boundary-layer mixing or urban heat-island amplification in central London can shift the exact observed maximum by 1°C. Trader consensus, reflected in the market-implied probabilities favoring 31°C (37.5%) and 30°C (26.5%) ahead of 32°C (22.3%), incorporates both the deterministic forecast and residual uncertainty from the latest model runs. With resolution less than 48 hours away, fresh updates from the Met Office and ECMWF will likely tighten the distribution around the eventual peak reading.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Londra il 12 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Londra il 12 agosto?
31°C 39%
30°C 24%
32°C 22.3%
29°C 5%
NUOVO
$15,346 Vol.
NUOVO
$15,346 Vol.
12 ago 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
5%
30°C
24%
31°C
39%
32°C
22%
33°C
5%
34°C o superiore
2%
31°C 39%
30°C 24%
32°C 22.3%
29°C 5%
NUOVO
$15,346 Vol.
NUOVO
$15,346 Vol.
12 ago 2026
24°C or below
$667 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$393 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$795 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$545 Vol.
1%
28°C
$794 Vol.
3%
29°C
$2,262 Vol.
5%
30°C
$3,946 Vol.
24%
31°C
$3,414 Vol.
39%
32°C
$981 Vol.
22%
33°C
$647 Vol.
5%
34°C o superiore
$902 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**High pressure building over the UK is driving the current forecast for sunny, settled conditions in London on August 12, supporting maximum temperatures centered around 30–32°C.** Official Met Office guidance currently projects a peak of 32°C under clear skies with negligible rain risk (<5%) and light winds, consistent with a warming trend that has lifted daytime highs from the mid-20s earlier in the week. Ensemble model outputs show limited spread in this short-range window, though small differences in boundary-layer mixing or urban heat-island amplification in central London can shift the exact observed maximum by 1°C.
Trader consensus, reflected in the market-implied probabilities favoring 31°C (37.5%) and 30°C (26.5%) ahead of 32°C (22.3%), incorporates both the deterministic forecast and residual uncertainty from the latest model runs. With resolution less than 48 hours away, fresh updates from the Met Office and ECMWF will likely tighten the distribution around the eventual peak reading.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$15,346Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**High pressure building over the UK is driving the current forecast for sunny, settled conditions in London on August 12, supporting maximum temperatures centered around 30–32°C.** Official Met Office guidance currently projects a peak of 32°C under clear skies with negligible rain risk (<5%) and light winds, consistent with a warming trend that has lifted daytime highs from the mid-20s earlier in the week. Ensemble model outputs show limited spread in this short-range window, though small differences in boundary-layer mixing or urban heat-island amplification in central London can shift the exact observed maximum by 1°C.
Trader consensus, reflected in the market-implied probabilities favoring 31°C (37.5%) and 30°C (26.5%) ahead of 32°C (22.3%), incorporates both the deterministic forecast and residual uncertainty from the latest model runs. With resolution less than 48 hours away, fresh updates from the Met Office and ECMWF will likely tighten the distribution around the eventual peak reading.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,346Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...**High pressure building over the UK is driving the current forecast for sunny, settled conditions in London on August 12, supporting maximum temperatures centered around 30–32°C.** Official Met Office guidance currently projects a peak of 32°C under clear skies with negligible rain risk (<5%) and light winds, consistent with a warming trend that has lifted daytime highs from the mid-20s earlier in the week. Ensemble model outputs show limited spread in this short-range window, though small differences in boundary-layer mixing or urban heat-island amplification in central London can shift the exact observed maximum by 1°C. Trader consensus, reflected in the market-implied probabilities favoring 31°C (37.5%) and 30°C (26.5%) ahead of 32°C (22.3%), incorporates both the deterministic forecast and residual uncertainty from the latest model runs. With resolution less than 48 hours away, fresh updates from the Met Office and ECMWF will likely tighten the distribution around the eventual peak reading.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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