Recent forecast ensembles from Météo-France and European models place Paris overnight lows on August 12 near 17–18 °C, the narrow range driving the tight 40.5 % / 38.5 % market split. Clear skies and light winds favor stronger radiative cooling after the recent heatwave, while higher boundary-layer moisture or a modest breeze could limit the drop by 1 °C. Urban heat-island effects and the city’s Seine valley location add micro-scale variability that ensemble spreads capture. Traders weigh the latest 00Z and 12Z runs plus climatological August minima around 15–16 °C; any shift in cloud or wind guidance before resolution will likely swing the implied odds between these two outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Parigi il 12 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa a Parigi il 12 agosto?
17°C 41%
18°C 35%
19°C 26%
16°C 12%
NUOVO
NUOVO
12 ago 2026
14°C or below
5%
15°C
5%
16°C
12%
17°C
41%
18°C
35%
19°C
26%
20°C
10%
21°C
5%
22°C
7%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
<1%
17°C 41%
18°C 35%
19°C 26%
16°C 12%
NUOVO
NUOVO
12 ago 2026
14°C or below
$12 Vol.
5%
15°C
$1 Vol.
5%
16°C
$1 Vol.
12%
17°C
$2 Vol.
41%
18°C
$0 Vol.
35%
19°C
$2 Vol.
26%
20°C
$0 Vol.
10%
21°C
$10 Vol.
5%
22°C
$12 Vol.
7%
23°C
$12 Vol.
2%
24°C or higher
$12 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast ensembles from Météo-France and European models place Paris overnight lows on August 12 near 17–18 °C, the narrow range driving the tight 40.5 % / 38.5 % market split. Clear skies and light winds favor stronger radiative cooling after the recent heatwave, while higher boundary-layer moisture or a modest breeze could limit the drop by 1 °C. Urban heat-island effects and the city’s Seine valley location add micro-scale variability that ensemble spreads capture. Traders weigh the latest 00Z and 12Z runs plus climatological August minima around 15–16 °C; any shift in cloud or wind guidance before resolution will likely swing the implied odds between these two outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$65Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast ensembles from Météo-France and European models place Paris overnight lows on August 12 near 17–18 °C, the narrow range driving the tight 40.5 % / 38.5 % market split. Clear skies and light winds favor stronger radiative cooling after the recent heatwave, while higher boundary-layer moisture or a modest breeze could limit the drop by 1 °C. Urban heat-island effects and the city’s Seine valley location add micro-scale variability that ensemble spreads capture. Traders weigh the latest 00Z and 12Z runs plus climatological August minima around 15–16 °C; any shift in cloud or wind guidance before resolution will likely swing the implied odds between these two outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$65Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast ensembles from Météo-France and European models place Paris overnight lows on August 12 near 17–18 °C, the narrow range driving the tight 40.5 % / 38.5 % market split. Clear skies and light winds favor stronger radiative cooling after the recent heatwave, while higher boundary-layer moisture or a modest breeze could limit the drop by 1 °C. Urban heat-island effects and the city’s Seine valley location add micro-scale variability that ensemble spreads capture. Traders weigh the latest 00Z and 12Z runs plus climatological August minima around 15–16 °C; any shift in cloud or wind guidance before resolution will likely swing the implied odds between these two outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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