Recent short-range forecasts for Chengdu place the August 12 maximum in the mid- to upper-30s Celsius under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds typical of the Sichuan Basin in late summer. These conditions favor afternoon heating to 36–38 °C, consistent with the market’s heavy concentration on 37 °C (41.5 %) and the adjacent 36 °C and 38 °C bins. Climatological baselines for mid-August show average highs near 31–32 °C, yet recent model runs and analogous clear-sky episodes have lifted expectations several degrees above that norm. Light precipitation chances and stable high-pressure influence further support the current implied-probability distribution centered on 37 °C. Updated guidance overnight or on August 11 will refine the exact peak.