Current short-range forecasts from models like GFS and ECMWF, alongside AEMET guidance, point to a Madrid high near 38–39 °C on August 12 under continued subtropical ridge influence and clear skies, producing the market’s heavy weighting toward those bins. Persistent anomalous warmth across Iberia this summer, with recent daily maxima already in the mid-30s °C, reinforces this outlook while limiting upside to 40 °C or above. A partial solar eclipse peaking late in the afternoon may modestly reduce insolation and cap the daily peak. Traders will closely monitor the next 48-hour model cycles and any updates to boundary-layer moisture or wind fields that could shift the final observed maximum.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Madrid il 12 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Madrid il 12 agosto?
39°C 62%
38°C 29%
40°C 9%
37°C 3%
NUOVO
$10,358 Vol.
NUOVO
$10,358 Vol.
12 ago 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
3%
38°C
29%
39°C
62%
40°C
9%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
39°C 62%
38°C 29%
40°C 9%
37°C 3%
NUOVO
$10,358 Vol.
NUOVO
$10,358 Vol.
12 ago 2026
33°C or below
$861 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$417 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$466 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$210 Vol.
1%
37°C
$1,078 Vol.
3%
38°C
$3,616 Vol.
29%
39°C
$1,551 Vol.
62%
40°C
$921 Vol.
9%
41°C
$272 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$444 Vol.
<1%
43°C or higher
$523 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from models like GFS and ECMWF, alongside AEMET guidance, point to a Madrid high near 38–39 °C on August 12 under continued subtropical ridge influence and clear skies, producing the market’s heavy weighting toward those bins. Persistent anomalous warmth across Iberia this summer, with recent daily maxima already in the mid-30s °C, reinforces this outlook while limiting upside to 40 °C or above. A partial solar eclipse peaking late in the afternoon may modestly reduce insolation and cap the daily peak. Traders will closely monitor the next 48-hour model cycles and any updates to boundary-layer moisture or wind fields that could shift the final observed maximum.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$10,358Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from models like GFS and ECMWF, alongside AEMET guidance, point to a Madrid high near 38–39 °C on August 12 under continued subtropical ridge influence and clear skies, producing the market’s heavy weighting toward those bins. Persistent anomalous warmth across Iberia this summer, with recent daily maxima already in the mid-30s °C, reinforces this outlook while limiting upside to 40 °C or above. A partial solar eclipse peaking late in the afternoon may modestly reduce insolation and cap the daily peak. Traders will closely monitor the next 48-hour model cycles and any updates to boundary-layer moisture or wind fields that could shift the final observed maximum.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,358Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecasts from models like GFS and ECMWF, alongside AEMET guidance, point to a Madrid high near 38–39 °C on August 12 under continued subtropical ridge influence and clear skies, producing the market’s heavy weighting toward those bins. Persistent anomalous warmth across Iberia this summer, with recent daily maxima already in the mid-30s °C, reinforces this outlook while limiting upside to 40 °C or above. A partial solar eclipse peaking late in the afternoon may modestly reduce insolation and cap the daily peak. Traders will closely monitor the next 48-hour model cycles and any updates to boundary-layer moisture or wind fields that could shift the final observed maximum.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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