Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors an 18°C high temperature in Cape Town on May 5, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) official forecast of a maximum 18°C amid an intense cut-off low pressure system ushering cold air, cloudy skies, and isolated showers over the Western Cape. This synoptic feature has suppressed daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and southerly winds, with model ensembles from SAWS aligning closely on this outcome, consistent with intraday METAR observations so far. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected afternoon clearing for enhanced solar insolation or localized warmer pockets near Cape Town International Airport, the market's resolution station, though current atmospheric conditions make 19°C or higher unlikely absent rapid forecast revisions. SAWS updates expected later today could refine this further.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Cape Town on May 5?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on May 5?
18°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$43,518 Vol.
$43,518 Vol.
5 mag 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$43,518 Vol.
$43,518 Vol.
5 mag 2026
9°C or below
$1,798 Vol.
No
10°C
$1,159 Vol.
No
11°C
$649 Vol.
No
12°C
$754 Vol.
No
13°C
$603 Vol.
No
14°C
$1,901 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,946 Vol.
No
16°C
$3,156 Vol.
No
17°C
$4,101 Vol.
No
18°C
$13,253 Vol.
Yes
19°C or higher
$14,198 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors an 18°C high temperature in Cape Town on May 5, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) official forecast of a maximum 18°C amid an intense cut-off low pressure system ushering cold air, cloudy skies, and isolated showers over the Western Cape. This synoptic feature has suppressed daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and southerly winds, with model ensembles from SAWS aligning closely on this outcome, consistent with intraday METAR observations so far. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected afternoon clearing for enhanced solar insolation or localized warmer pockets near Cape Town International Airport, the market's resolution station, though current atmospheric conditions make 19°C or higher unlikely absent rapid forecast revisions. SAWS updates expected later today could refine this further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Volume
$43,518Data di fine
5 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors an 18°C high temperature in Cape Town on May 5, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) official forecast of a maximum 18°C amid an intense cut-off low pressure system ushering cold air, cloudy skies, and isolated showers over the Western Cape. This synoptic feature has suppressed daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and southerly winds, with model ensembles from SAWS aligning closely on this outcome, consistent with intraday METAR observations so far. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected afternoon clearing for enhanced solar insolation or localized warmer pockets near Cape Town International Airport, the market's resolution station, though current atmospheric conditions make 19°C or higher unlikely absent rapid forecast revisions. SAWS updates expected later today could refine this further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$43,518Data di fine
5 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors an 18°C high temperature in Cape Town on May 5, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) official forecast of a maximum 18°C amid an intense cut-off low pressure system ushering cold air, cloudy skies, and isolated showers over the Western Cape. This synoptic feature has suppressed daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and southerly winds, with model ensembles from SAWS aligning closely on this outcome, consistent with intraday METAR observations so far. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected afternoon clearing for enhanced solar insolation or localized warmer pockets near Cape Town International Airport, the market's resolution station, though current atmospheric conditions make 19°C or higher unlikely absent rapid forecast revisions. SAWS updates expected later today could refine this further.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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