Recent model consensus points to a daytime high of 34–35°C in Guangzhou on August 28, tempered by persistent cloud cover and scattered showers that reduce solar heating in the subtropical monsoon regime. Official guidance and ensemble runs show limited daytime clearing, keeping surface temperatures near or slightly above the 33°C August climatological average while well below the 36.2°C record. Light winds and high humidity further constrain extreme peaks, though brief breaks in precipitation could allow brief spikes toward 36°C. Traders appear to weigh these factors against typical late-summer variability, with fresh model updates from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration likely to refine odds ahead of the date.