Recent model consensus from regional forecasts points to persistent monsoon-driven convection and widespread cloud cover over Shenzhen on August 26, limiting solar insolation and capping daytime highs near 30–31 °C amid high humidity (70–85 %) and scattered thunderstorms. Light southerly winds and potential sea-breeze effects from the South China Sea further moderate peak values by enhancing mixing and evaporative cooling. These conditions align closely with the market-implied probabilities favoring 30 °C (31 %) and 31 °C (27.5 %), reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing only modest day-to-day variability. Key uncertainties center on the precise timing and intensity of rainfall, which could shift the maximum by 1–2 °C depending on afternoon clearing; updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Shenzhen il 26 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Shenzhen il 26 agosto?
30°C 31%
31°C 28%
32°C 18%
34°C 17%
NUOVO
NUOVO
26 ago 2026
25°C or below
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
7%
28°C
11%
29°C
13%
30°C
31%
31°C
28%
32°C
18%
33°C
11%
34°C
17%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 31%
31°C 28%
32°C 18%
34°C 17%
NUOVO
NUOVO
26 ago 2026
25°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
26°C
$0 Vol.
4%
27°C
$144 Vol.
7%
28°C
$0 Vol.
11%
29°C
$0 Vol.
13%
30°C
$24 Vol.
31%
31°C
$0 Vol.
28%
32°C
$15 Vol.
18%
33°C
$25 Vol.
11%
34°C
$5 Vol.
17%
35°C or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from regional forecasts points to persistent monsoon-driven convection and widespread cloud cover over Shenzhen on August 26, limiting solar insolation and capping daytime highs near 30–31 °C amid high humidity (70–85 %) and scattered thunderstorms. Light southerly winds and potential sea-breeze effects from the South China Sea further moderate peak values by enhancing mixing and evaporative cooling. These conditions align closely with the market-implied probabilities favoring 30 °C (31 %) and 31 °C (27.5 %), reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing only modest day-to-day variability. Key uncertainties center on the precise timing and intensity of rainfall, which could shift the maximum by 1–2 °C depending on afternoon clearing; updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$218Data di fine
26 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from regional forecasts points to persistent monsoon-driven convection and widespread cloud cover over Shenzhen on August 26, limiting solar insolation and capping daytime highs near 30–31 °C amid high humidity (70–85 %) and scattered thunderstorms. Light southerly winds and potential sea-breeze effects from the South China Sea further moderate peak values by enhancing mixing and evaporative cooling. These conditions align closely with the market-implied probabilities favoring 30 °C (31 %) and 31 °C (27.5 %), reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing only modest day-to-day variability. Key uncertainties center on the precise timing and intensity of rainfall, which could shift the maximum by 1–2 °C depending on afternoon clearing; updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$218Data di fine
26 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from regional forecasts points to persistent monsoon-driven convection and widespread cloud cover over Shenzhen on August 26, limiting solar insolation and capping daytime highs near 30–31 °C amid high humidity (70–85 %) and scattered thunderstorms. Light southerly winds and potential sea-breeze effects from the South China Sea further moderate peak values by enhancing mixing and evaporative cooling. These conditions align closely with the market-implied probabilities favoring 30 °C (31 %) and 31 °C (27.5 %), reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing only modest day-to-day variability. Key uncertainties center on the precise timing and intensity of rainfall, which could shift the maximum by 1–2 °C depending on afternoon clearing; updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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