Forecast models from the National Weather Service and supporting guidance indicate Houston highs on June 25 will most likely reach 92–93 °F, aligning with the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 93 °F for that date and the current market-implied probability of 39.5 %. Persistent southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico is maintaining typical late-June humidity and heat, with limited cloud cover expected to allow full diurnal heating. Ensemble consensus shows only modest spread around this value, driven by small differences in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon convection potential rather than any large-scale pattern shift. The secondary 90–91 °F bin (27.5 %) captures scenarios with slightly more morning cloud or seabreeze influence, while probabilities drop sharply above 94 °F because no strong upper-level ridge or downslope warming is forecast. Updated NWS model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will refine the exact peak before the daily maximum is recorded.