**Official IMD forecasts position 41°C as the most probable peak for Lucknow on June 26, with nearby values also competitive due to typical model spread.** The India Meteorological Department’s June 24 bulletin projects a maximum of 41°C under mainly clear skies and no heat-wave warning, following realized maxima of 40.9°C on June 23 and forecasts of 42°C on June 24–25. Persistent pre-monsoon conditions—dry northwesterly flow, low humidity, and strong daytime insolation—support these readings, while the absence of monsoon moisture or cloud cover keeps temperatures near seasonal norms of ~40°C. Trader positioning aligns closely with these authoritative updates: the 41°C and 42°C brackets together exceed 70% implied probability, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and limited upside risk from a strengthening heat dome or delayed monsoon onset. Minor model differences across GFS/ECMWF runs and the possibility of a 1°C measurement variance at the official station explain the secondary weight on 40°C and 43°C. No major shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the market anchored to the current IMD consensus ahead of final 26 June observations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Lucknow on June 26?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on June 26?
41°C 100.0%
37°C or below <1%
38°C <1%
39°C <1%
$102,457 Vol.
$102,457 Vol.
26 giu 2026
37°C or below
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
Yes
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C
No
46°C
No
47°C or higher
No
41°C 100.0%
37°C or below <1%
38°C <1%
39°C <1%
$102,457 Vol.
$102,457 Vol.
26 giu 2026
37°C or below
$4,105 Vol.
No
38°C
$3,816 Vol.
No
39°C
$15,889 Vol.
No
40°C
$17,475 Vol.
No
41°C
$22,133 Vol.
Yes
42°C
$11,080 Vol.
No
43°C
$3,568 Vol.
No
44°C
$1,879 Vol.
No
45°C
$2,670 Vol.
No
46°C
$6,476 Vol.
No
47°C or higher
$13,366 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official IMD forecasts position 41°C as the most probable peak for Lucknow on June 26, with nearby values also competitive due to typical model spread.** The India Meteorological Department’s June 24 bulletin projects a maximum of 41°C under mainly clear skies and no heat-wave warning, following realized maxima of 40.9°C on June 23 and forecasts of 42°C on June 24–25. Persistent pre-monsoon conditions—dry northwesterly flow, low humidity, and strong daytime insolation—support these readings, while the absence of monsoon moisture or cloud cover keeps temperatures near seasonal norms of ~40°C.
Trader positioning aligns closely with these authoritative updates: the 41°C and 42°C brackets together exceed 70% implied probability, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and limited upside risk from a strengthening heat dome or delayed monsoon onset. Minor model differences across GFS/ECMWF runs and the possibility of a 1°C measurement variance at the official station explain the secondary weight on 40°C and 43°C. No major shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the market anchored to the current IMD consensus ahead of final 26 June observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$102,457Data di fine
26 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official IMD forecasts position 41°C as the most probable peak for Lucknow on June 26, with nearby values also competitive due to typical model spread.** The India Meteorological Department’s June 24 bulletin projects a maximum of 41°C under mainly clear skies and no heat-wave warning, following realized maxima of 40.9°C on June 23 and forecasts of 42°C on June 24–25. Persistent pre-monsoon conditions—dry northwesterly flow, low humidity, and strong daytime insolation—support these readings, while the absence of monsoon moisture or cloud cover keeps temperatures near seasonal norms of ~40°C.
Trader positioning aligns closely with these authoritative updates: the 41°C and 42°C brackets together exceed 70% implied probability, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and limited upside risk from a strengthening heat dome or delayed monsoon onset. Minor model differences across GFS/ECMWF runs and the possibility of a 1°C measurement variance at the official station explain the secondary weight on 40°C and 43°C. No major shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the market anchored to the current IMD consensus ahead of final 26 June observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$102,457Data di fine
26 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
**Official IMD forecasts position 41°C as the most probable peak for Lucknow on June 26, with nearby values also competitive due to typical model spread.** The India Meteorological Department’s June 24 bulletin projects a maximum of 41°C under mainly clear skies and no heat-wave warning, following realized maxima of 40.9°C on June 23 and forecasts of 42°C on June 24–25. Persistent pre-monsoon conditions—dry northwesterly flow, low humidity, and strong daytime insolation—support these readings, while the absence of monsoon moisture or cloud cover keeps temperatures near seasonal norms of ~40°C. Trader positioning aligns closely with these authoritative updates: the 41°C and 42°C brackets together exceed 70% implied probability, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and limited upside risk from a strengthening heat dome or delayed monsoon onset. Minor model differences across GFS/ECMWF runs and the possibility of a 1°C measurement variance at the official station explain the secondary weight on 40°C and 43°C. No major shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the market anchored to the current IMD consensus ahead of final 26 June observations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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