Recent model consensus from European and Spanish meteorological agencies points to a persistent hot air mass over central Spain, positioning 36°C and 37°C as the dominant outcomes for Madrid’s August 2 maximum. These probabilities reflect current ensemble guidance showing daytime highs in the mid-30s Celsius under mostly clear skies and light winds, consistent with the ongoing regional heatwave driven by subtropical ridging. Climatological baselines for early August average near 33°C, so the elevated outlook stems from limited cooling expected before the date. Minor model spread around potential boundary-layer mixing or slight advection shifts keeps 35°C and 38°C as secondary possibilities, while extremes below 34°C or above 39°C remain low-probability given stable synoptic patterns. Final AEMET and ECMWF updates on August 1 will refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.