Persistent high-pressure ridging over the Iberian Peninsula, combined with southerly advection of warmer air masses and clear skies, has driven strong daytime insolation and surface heating across Madrid on June 16. Official AEMET observations and short-range ensemble guidance from European models align on an afternoon peak reaching 34°C at the reference station, consistent with climatological patterns for mid-June under similar synoptic setups and exceeding the seasonal average by several degrees. This consensus underpins the market-implied 100% probability for the 34°C outcome. Only an unanticipated increase in cloud cover, a rapid frontal passage altering the wind field, or a post-hoc data revision at the monitoring station could realistically shift the recorded maximum away from this level before final resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Madrid on June 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 16?
34°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$88,463 Vol.
$88,463 Vol.
16 giu 2026
30°C or below
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
Yes
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C or higher
No
34°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$88,463 Vol.
$88,463 Vol.
16 giu 2026
30°C or below
$2,854 Vol.
No
31°C
$6,923 Vol.
No
32°C
$10,598 Vol.
No
33°C
$20,190 Vol.
No
34°C
$15,612 Vol.
Yes
35°C
$16,988 Vol.
No
36°C
$11,009 Vol.
No
37°C
$2,761 Vol.
No
38°C
$656 Vol.
No
39°C
$396 Vol.
No
40°C or higher
$476 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure ridging over the Iberian Peninsula, combined with southerly advection of warmer air masses and clear skies, has driven strong daytime insolation and surface heating across Madrid on June 16. Official AEMET observations and short-range ensemble guidance from European models align on an afternoon peak reaching 34°C at the reference station, consistent with climatological patterns for mid-June under similar synoptic setups and exceeding the seasonal average by several degrees. This consensus underpins the market-implied 100% probability for the 34°C outcome. Only an unanticipated increase in cloud cover, a rapid frontal passage altering the wind field, or a post-hoc data revision at the monitoring station could realistically shift the recorded maximum away from this level before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jun 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$88,463Data di fine
16 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure ridging over the Iberian Peninsula, combined with southerly advection of warmer air masses and clear skies, has driven strong daytime insolation and surface heating across Madrid on June 16. Official AEMET observations and short-range ensemble guidance from European models align on an afternoon peak reaching 34°C at the reference station, consistent with climatological patterns for mid-June under similar synoptic setups and exceeding the seasonal average by several degrees. This consensus underpins the market-implied 100% probability for the 34°C outcome. Only an unanticipated increase in cloud cover, a rapid frontal passage altering the wind field, or a post-hoc data revision at the monitoring station could realistically shift the recorded maximum away from this level before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$88,463Data di fine
16 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Persistent high-pressure ridging over the Iberian Peninsula, combined with southerly advection of warmer air masses and clear skies, has driven strong daytime insolation and surface heating across Madrid on June 16. Official AEMET observations and short-range ensemble guidance from European models align on an afternoon peak reaching 34°C at the reference station, consistent with climatological patterns for mid-June under similar synoptic setups and exceeding the seasonal average by several degrees. This consensus underpins the market-implied 100% probability for the 34°C outcome. Only an unanticipated increase in cloud cover, a rapid frontal passage altering the wind field, or a post-hoc data revision at the monitoring station could realistically shift the recorded maximum away from this level before final resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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