Spain's first major heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of warm air from North Africa, is pushing Madrid temperatures higher through June 23, with official AEMET and ECMWF model guidance showing peak daily maxima likely in the 39–41°C range amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with trader emphasis on 40°C as the modal outcome, reflecting elevated probabilities relative to June climatology of ~28–30°C. Recent model runs indicate limited cooling before the event peaks, though slight forecast divergence on exact advection strength and urban heat retention could shift the distribution toward 38°C or 42°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Madrid on June 23?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 23?
41°C 100.0%
36°C or below <1%
37°C <1%
38°C <1%
$107,795 Vol.
$107,795 Vol.
23 giu 2026
36°C or below
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
Yes
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C
No
46°C or higher
No
41°C 100.0%
36°C or below <1%
37°C <1%
38°C <1%
$107,795 Vol.
$107,795 Vol.
23 giu 2026
36°C or below
$446 Vol.
No
37°C
$2,814 Vol.
No
38°C
$10,114 Vol.
No
39°C
$23,679 Vol.
No
40°C
$26,166 Vol.
No
41°C
$15,024 Vol.
Yes
42°C
$12,824 Vol.
No
43°C
$7,517 Vol.
No
44°C
$6,817 Vol.
No
45°C
$1,980 Vol.
No
46°C or higher
$413 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Spain's first major heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of warm air from North Africa, is pushing Madrid temperatures higher through June 23, with official AEMET and ECMWF model guidance showing peak daily maxima likely in the 39–41°C range amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with trader emphasis on 40°C as the modal outcome, reflecting elevated probabilities relative to June climatology of ~28–30°C. Recent model runs indicate limited cooling before the event peaks, though slight forecast divergence on exact advection strength and urban heat retention could shift the distribution toward 38°C or 42°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jun 21, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$107,795Data di fine
23 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 21, 2026, 12:08 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Spain's first major heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of warm air from North Africa, is pushing Madrid temperatures higher through June 23, with official AEMET and ECMWF model guidance showing peak daily maxima likely in the 39–41°C range amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with trader emphasis on 40°C as the modal outcome, reflecting elevated probabilities relative to June climatology of ~28–30°C. Recent model runs indicate limited cooling before the event peaks, though slight forecast divergence on exact advection strength and urban heat retention could shift the distribution toward 38°C or 42°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$107,795Data di fine
23 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 21, 2026, 12:08 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Spain's first major heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of warm air from North Africa, is pushing Madrid temperatures higher through June 23, with official AEMET and ECMWF model guidance showing peak daily maxima likely in the 39–41°C range amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with trader emphasis on 40°C as the modal outcome, reflecting elevated probabilities relative to June climatology of ~28–30°C. Recent model runs indicate limited cooling before the event peaks, though slight forecast divergence on exact advection strength and urban heat retention could shift the distribution toward 38°C or 42°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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