Official National Weather Service forecasts for Miami on August 4 point to a high near 90°F under partly sunny skies with scattered thunderstorms likely in the afternoon, driven by typical summer sea-breeze convergence and abundant tropical moisture that caps extreme daytime heating. This aligns with the market's leading 90-91°F outcome at 39% implied probability, while the secondary clustering around 88-89°F and 92-93°F reflects model uncertainty in storm timing and coverage. Prolonged above-normal heat through July, including record heat-index duration, has sustained elevated baseline temperatures, yet climatological averages near 89°F and frequent convective cooling keep probabilities for 94°F or higher below 3%. Updated short-range model runs and the final Miami International Airport observation will resolve the market.