Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a highest temperature in Seattle on July 3 centered in the low-to-mid 70s, with the closely bunched market odds (72–73 °F at 22 %, 74–75 °F at 19 %, 70–71 °F at 17.5 %) reflecting modest uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover and marine-layer strength. Persistent onshore flow and a shallow marine layer typical of early July are expected to limit daytime heating, keeping highs near the seasonal average of 74–76 °F while suppressing the stronger warming seen earlier in the summer. Ensemble spreads remain modest because steering patterns are stable, but small differences in timing of any onshore push or breaks in stratus could shift the peak by 2–3 °F. Updated short-range model runs and the next NWS Seattle area forecast discussion will provide the clearest signals ahead of the daily high observation at Sea-Tac or Boeing Field.