Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 24°C in Shanghai on May 2, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's key stations, including Xujiahui Observatory, which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and brief sprinkles that capped solar heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from CMA updates, GFS, and ECMWF ensembles projecting 23-25°C peaks during early May's transitional monsoon conditions, where historical averages hover around 23°C influenced by East China Sea breezes and urban heat island effects. Realistic challenges are minimal post-resolution—only an unprecedented data revision from authoritative measurements could shift it, though airport stations like Hongqiao reported slightly higher 25°C due to microclimate variances irrelevant to market criteria.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 2?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 2?
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$124,507 Vol.
$124,507 Vol.
2 mag 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$124,507 Vol.
$124,507 Vol.
2 mag 2026
18°C or below
$3,438 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,701 Vol.
No
20°C
$6,091 Vol.
No
21°C
$10,672 Vol.
No
22°C
$13,060 Vol.
No
23°C
$24,636 Vol.
No
24°C
$19,535 Vol.
Yes
25°C
$17,201 Vol.
No
26°C
$12,693 Vol.
No
27°C
$7,312 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$8,169 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 24°C in Shanghai on May 2, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's key stations, including Xujiahui Observatory, which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and brief sprinkles that capped solar heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from CMA updates, GFS, and ECMWF ensembles projecting 23-25°C peaks during early May's transitional monsoon conditions, where historical averages hover around 23°C influenced by East China Sea breezes and urban heat island effects. Realistic challenges are minimal post-resolution—only an unprecedented data revision from authoritative measurements could shift it, though airport stations like Hongqiao reported slightly higher 25°C due to microclimate variances irrelevant to market criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
Volume
$124,507Data di fine
2 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:41 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 24°C in Shanghai on May 2, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's key stations, including Xujiahui Observatory, which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and brief sprinkles that capped solar heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from CMA updates, GFS, and ECMWF ensembles projecting 23-25°C peaks during early May's transitional monsoon conditions, where historical averages hover around 23°C influenced by East China Sea breezes and urban heat island effects. Realistic challenges are minimal post-resolution—only an unprecedented data revision from authoritative measurements could shift it, though airport stations like Hongqiao reported slightly higher 25°C due to microclimate variances irrelevant to market criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$124,507Data di fine
2 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:41 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 24°C in Shanghai on May 2, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's key stations, including Xujiahui Observatory, which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and brief sprinkles that capped solar heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from CMA updates, GFS, and ECMWF ensembles projecting 23-25°C peaks during early May's transitional monsoon conditions, where historical averages hover around 23°C influenced by East China Sea breezes and urban heat island effects. Realistic challenges are minimal post-resolution—only an unprecedented data revision from authoritative measurements could shift it, though airport stations like Hongqiao reported slightly higher 25°C due to microclimate variances irrelevant to market criteria.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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