Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching 34°C or higher on May 12, 2026, driven by ongoing Sharav conditions—hot, dry easterly winds from the desert suppressing coastal sea breezes and advecting extreme heat inland. Israel Meteorological Service observations confirm rapid warming, with 32°C recorded midday at regional stations, while the resolving Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) NOAA data, which captures localized peaks, aligns with model consensus for highs exceeding 34°C amid high heat stress warnings. Historical May averages hover around 26–28°C, but today's synoptic pattern overrides norms; only an unexpected late-afternoon marine layer incursion or data revision could challenge this, pending final hourly finalized readings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 12?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 12?
34°C or higher 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$92,360 Vol.
$92,360 Vol.
12 mag 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
Yes
34°C or higher 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$92,360 Vol.
$92,360 Vol.
12 mag 2026
24°C or below
$3,182 Vol.
No
25°C
$5,066 Vol.
No
26°C
$6,746 Vol.
No
27°C
$7,579 Vol.
No
28°C
$15,651 Vol.
No
29°C
$10,593 Vol.
No
30°C
$11,548 Vol.
No
31°C
$4,265 Vol.
No
32°C
$5,161 Vol.
No
33°C
$14,635 Vol.
No
34°C or higher
$7,936 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching 34°C or higher on May 12, 2026, driven by ongoing Sharav conditions—hot, dry easterly winds from the desert suppressing coastal sea breezes and advecting extreme heat inland. Israel Meteorological Service observations confirm rapid warming, with 32°C recorded midday at regional stations, while the resolving Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) NOAA data, which captures localized peaks, aligns with model consensus for highs exceeding 34°C amid high heat stress warnings. Historical May averages hover around 26–28°C, but today's synoptic pattern overrides norms; only an unexpected late-afternoon marine layer incursion or data revision could challenge this, pending final hourly finalized readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 10, 2026, 12:48 AM ET
Volume
$92,360Data di fine
12 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 10, 2026, 12:48 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching 34°C or higher on May 12, 2026, driven by ongoing Sharav conditions—hot, dry easterly winds from the desert suppressing coastal sea breezes and advecting extreme heat inland. Israel Meteorological Service observations confirm rapid warming, with 32°C recorded midday at regional stations, while the resolving Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) NOAA data, which captures localized peaks, aligns with model consensus for highs exceeding 34°C amid high heat stress warnings. Historical May averages hover around 26–28°C, but today's synoptic pattern overrides norms; only an unexpected late-afternoon marine layer incursion or data revision could challenge this, pending final hourly finalized readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$92,360Data di fine
12 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 10, 2026, 12:48 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching 34°C or higher on May 12, 2026, driven by ongoing Sharav conditions—hot, dry easterly winds from the desert suppressing coastal sea breezes and advecting extreme heat inland. Israel Meteorological Service observations confirm rapid warming, with 32°C recorded midday at regional stations, while the resolving Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) NOAA data, which captures localized peaks, aligns with model consensus for highs exceeding 34°C amid high heat stress warnings. Historical May averages hover around 26–28°C, but today's synoptic pattern overrides norms; only an unexpected late-afternoon marine layer incursion or data revision could challenge this, pending final hourly finalized readings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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