Traders see the 82–83°F bin as the narrow favorite at 21.5% implied probability because the latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance place the July 18 maximum near that range under a building ridge with light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF still straddle the 78–85°F window, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover that could trim or boost readings by a degree or two. With no strong frontal passage or significant moisture advection expected, historical July climatology for Central Park supports a central-tendency outcome near 81°F, keeping the tightly clustered 78–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominant. New 00Z and 12Z model runs tonight will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the observation window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di New York il 18 luglio?
La temperatura più alta di New York il 18 luglio?
80-81°F 32%
78-79°F 26%
82-83°F 21%
77°F or below 18%
NUOVO
$15,438 Vol.
NUOVO
$15,438 Vol.
18 lug 2026
77°F or below
18%
78-79°F
26%
80-81°F
32%
82-83°F
21%
84-85°F
9%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 32%
78-79°F 26%
82-83°F 21%
77°F or below 18%
NUOVO
$15,438 Vol.
NUOVO
$15,438 Vol.
18 lug 2026
77°F or below
$1,625 Vol.
18%
78-79°F
$1,486 Vol.
26%
80-81°F
$3,165 Vol.
32%
82-83°F
$971 Vol.
21%
84-85°F
$1,055 Vol.
9%
86-87°F
$606 Vol.
2%
88-89°F
$2,246 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$1,459 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$2,189 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$386 Vol.
<1%
96°F or higher
$250 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 82–83°F bin as the narrow favorite at 21.5% implied probability because the latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance place the July 18 maximum near that range under a building ridge with light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF still straddle the 78–85°F window, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover that could trim or boost readings by a degree or two. With no strong frontal passage or significant moisture advection expected, historical July climatology for Central Park supports a central-tendency outcome near 81°F, keeping the tightly clustered 78–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominant. New 00Z and 12Z model runs tonight will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$15,438Data di fine
18 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 82–83°F bin as the narrow favorite at 21.5% implied probability because the latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance place the July 18 maximum near that range under a building ridge with light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF still straddle the 78–85°F window, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover that could trim or boost readings by a degree or two. With no strong frontal passage or significant moisture advection expected, historical July climatology for Central Park supports a central-tendency outcome near 81°F, keeping the tightly clustered 78–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominant. New 00Z and 12Z model runs tonight will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,438Data di fine
18 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the 82–83°F bin as the narrow favorite at 21.5% implied probability because the latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance place the July 18 maximum near that range under a building ridge with light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF still straddle the 78–85°F window, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover that could trim or boost readings by a degree or two. With no strong frontal passage or significant moisture advection expected, historical July climatology for Central Park supports a central-tendency outcome near 81°F, keeping the tightly clustered 78–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominant. New 00Z and 12Z model runs tonight will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the observation window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti