Current numerical weather prediction models from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble indicate a most probable daily maximum temperature of 34–36°C for Madrid on July 17, aligning directly with the market’s highest implied probabilities on those outcomes. Persistent high-pressure dominance and above-average 850 hPa temperatures across the Iberian interior sustain this range, consistent with July climatology and the ongoing seasonal warming trend documented by AEMET. Ensemble spread remains modest, with limited model disagreement on steering patterns or timing of any weak Atlantic trough that could modestly suppress peaks. Updated short-range guidance and official briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts that could shift trader consensus ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Madrid il 17 luglio?
La temperatura più alta di Madrid il 17 luglio?
35°C 51%
36°C 24%
34°C 22%
37°C 2.9%
NUOVO
$13,219 Vol.
NUOVO
$13,219 Vol.
17 lug 2026
30°C o inferiore
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
22%
35°C
51%
36°C
24%
37°C
3%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C o superiore
<1%
35°C 51%
36°C 24%
34°C 22%
37°C 2.9%
NUOVO
$13,219 Vol.
NUOVO
$13,219 Vol.
17 lug 2026
30°C o inferiore
$952 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$607 Vol.
1%
32°C
$405 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$457 Vol.
1%
34°C
$2,515 Vol.
22%
35°C
$4,965 Vol.
51%
36°C
$1,634 Vol.
24%
37°C
$453 Vol.
3%
38°C
$445 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$462 Vol.
<1%
40°C o superiore
$338 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble indicate a most probable daily maximum temperature of 34–36°C for Madrid on July 17, aligning directly with the market’s highest implied probabilities on those outcomes. Persistent high-pressure dominance and above-average 850 hPa temperatures across the Iberian interior sustain this range, consistent with July climatology and the ongoing seasonal warming trend documented by AEMET. Ensemble spread remains modest, with limited model disagreement on steering patterns or timing of any weak Atlantic trough that could modestly suppress peaks. Updated short-range guidance and official briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts that could shift trader consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$13,219Data di fine
17 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble indicate a most probable daily maximum temperature of 34–36°C for Madrid on July 17, aligning directly with the market’s highest implied probabilities on those outcomes. Persistent high-pressure dominance and above-average 850 hPa temperatures across the Iberian interior sustain this range, consistent with July climatology and the ongoing seasonal warming trend documented by AEMET. Ensemble spread remains modest, with limited model disagreement on steering patterns or timing of any weak Atlantic trough that could modestly suppress peaks. Updated short-range guidance and official briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts that could shift trader consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,219Data di fine
17 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction models from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble indicate a most probable daily maximum temperature of 34–36°C for Madrid on July 17, aligning directly with the market’s highest implied probabilities on those outcomes. Persistent high-pressure dominance and above-average 850 hPa temperatures across the Iberian interior sustain this range, consistent with July climatology and the ongoing seasonal warming trend documented by AEMET. Ensemble spread remains modest, with limited model disagreement on steering patterns or timing of any weak Atlantic trough that could modestly suppress peaks. Updated short-range guidance and official briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts that could shift trader consensus ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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