Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and local IMGW models indicate a moderating Atlantic air mass will limit Warsaw’s July 18 maximum to the 24–26 °C range, with thundery showers possible during peak heating hours that reduce insolation and cap afternoon temperatures. This follows a late-June heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5 °C but has since yielded to cooler-than-average July conditions across central Europe. Traders have concentrated probability on 25–26 °C outcomes because model runs show modest uncertainty around cloud cover and convective timing, while higher thresholds remain low-probability given the post-heatwave pattern and typical July climatology of 24–25 °C. Updated model guidance and IMGW morning observations on July 17 will provide the next key data points before market resolution.