Current ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on July 23 most likely between 17°C and 20°C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. A passing Atlantic trough is expected to increase cloud cover and bring light showers or patchy rain, limiting daytime insolation and keeping maxima below seasonal July averages near 24°C. Minor differences among leading probabilities reflect subtle variations in predicted frontal timing, low-level moisture, and wind patterns across runs from agencies such as ECMWF and GFS, with updates through July 21 showing stable consensus rather than sharp shifts. Historical analogs for late-July cool outbreaks in central Poland support the current distribution, while resolution hinges on official maximum readings from Warsaw meteorological stations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Varsavia il 23 luglio?
La temperatura più alta a Varsavia il 23 luglio?
19°C 38%
20°C 33%
18°C 18%
21°C 6%
$19,180 Vol.
$19,180 Vol.
23 lug 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
4%
18°C
18%
19°C
38%
20°C
33%
21°C
6%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 38%
20°C 33%
18°C 18%
21°C 6%
$19,180 Vol.
$19,180 Vol.
23 lug 2026
14°C or below
$451 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$657 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,937 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$2,308 Vol.
4%
18°C
$3,366 Vol.
18%
19°C
$2,766 Vol.
38%
20°C
$3,247 Vol.
33%
21°C
$2,910 Vol.
6%
22°C
$897 Vol.
1%
23°C
$396 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$245 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on July 23 most likely between 17°C and 20°C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. A passing Atlantic trough is expected to increase cloud cover and bring light showers or patchy rain, limiting daytime insolation and keeping maxima below seasonal July averages near 24°C. Minor differences among leading probabilities reflect subtle variations in predicted frontal timing, low-level moisture, and wind patterns across runs from agencies such as ECMWF and GFS, with updates through July 21 showing stable consensus rather than sharp shifts. Historical analogs for late-July cool outbreaks in central Poland support the current distribution, while resolution hinges on official maximum readings from Warsaw meteorological stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$19,180Data di fine
23 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on July 23 most likely between 17°C and 20°C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. A passing Atlantic trough is expected to increase cloud cover and bring light showers or patchy rain, limiting daytime insolation and keeping maxima below seasonal July averages near 24°C. Minor differences among leading probabilities reflect subtle variations in predicted frontal timing, low-level moisture, and wind patterns across runs from agencies such as ECMWF and GFS, with updates through July 21 showing stable consensus rather than sharp shifts. Historical analogs for late-July cool outbreaks in central Poland support the current distribution, while resolution hinges on official maximum readings from Warsaw meteorological stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$19,180Data di fine
23 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on July 23 most likely between 17°C and 20°C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. A passing Atlantic trough is expected to increase cloud cover and bring light showers or patchy rain, limiting daytime insolation and keeping maxima below seasonal July averages near 24°C. Minor differences among leading probabilities reflect subtle variations in predicted frontal timing, low-level moisture, and wind patterns across runs from agencies such as ECMWF and GFS, with updates through July 21 showing stable consensus rather than sharp shifts. Historical analogs for late-July cool outbreaks in central Poland support the current distribution, while resolution hinges on official maximum readings from Warsaw meteorological stations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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