US-Iran ceasefire talks mediated by Pakistan advanced on May 18 when Tehran submitted its latest proposal, demanding compensation for war damage, an end to the US naval blockade of its ports, and a halt to fighting across all fronts including Lebanon. President Trump postponed a planned military strike the same day to allow negotiations to continue, describing the month-old truce as fragile and under strain from ongoing violations and unresolved disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief. Both sides have exchanged multiple proposals since the April 8 agreement, yet core differences persist on Iranian nuclear and missile programs, with no firm timeline for a permanent deal. Traders are monitoring diplomatic signals from Islamabad and any escalation in regional proxy actions that could test the indefinite extension.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
$158,624 Vol.
May 20
97%
May 21
92%
May 22
81%
May 24
67%
May 27
61%
May 31
51%
June 7
40%
June 15
37%
June 30
34%
July 31
30%
December 31
24%
$158,624 Vol.
May 20
$39,912 Vol.
97%
May 21
$43,191 Vol.
92%
May 22
$23,737 Vol.
81%
May 24
$15,155 Vol.
67%
May 27
$12,105 Vol.
61%
May 31
$5,508 Vol.
51%
June 7
$3,595 Vol.
40%
June 15
$3,713 Vol.
37%
June 30
$1,876 Vol.
34%
July 31
$6,156 Vol.
30%
December 31
$6,879 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran ceasefire talks mediated by Pakistan advanced on May 18 when Tehran submitted its latest proposal, demanding compensation for war damage, an end to the US naval blockade of its ports, and a halt to fighting across all fronts including Lebanon. President Trump postponed a planned military strike the same day to allow negotiations to continue, describing the month-old truce as fragile and under strain from ongoing violations and unresolved disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief. Both sides have exchanged multiple proposals since the April 8 agreement, yet core differences persist on Iranian nuclear and missile programs, with no firm timeline for a permanent deal. Traders are monitoring diplomatic signals from Islamabad and any escalation in regional proxy actions that could test the indefinite extension.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
Volume
$158,624Mercato aperto
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran ceasefire talks mediated by Pakistan advanced on May 18 when Tehran submitted its latest proposal, demanding compensation for war damage, an end to the US naval blockade of its ports, and a halt to fighting across all fronts including Lebanon. President Trump postponed a planned military strike the same day to allow negotiations to continue, describing the month-old truce as fragile and under strain from ongoing violations and unresolved disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief. Both sides have exchanged multiple proposals since the April 8 agreement, yet core differences persist on Iranian nuclear and missile programs, with no firm timeline for a permanent deal. Traders are monitoring diplomatic signals from Islamabad and any escalation in regional proxy actions that could test the indefinite extension.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$158,624Mercato aperto
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran ceasefire talks mediated by Pakistan advanced on May 18 when Tehran submitted its latest proposal, demanding compensation for war damage, an end to the US naval blockade of its ports, and a halt to fighting across all fronts including Lebanon. President Trump postponed a planned military strike the same day to allow negotiations to continue, describing the month-old truce as fragile and under strain from ongoing violations and unresolved disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief. Both sides have exchanged multiple proposals since the April 8 agreement, yet core differences persist on Iranian nuclear and missile programs, with no firm timeline for a permanent deal. Traders are monitoring diplomatic signals from Islamabad and any escalation in regional proxy actions that could test the indefinite extension.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti