Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through direct naval actions and warnings to commercial vessels have sustained trader assessments near even odds for a successful targeting by the August 24 deadline. IRGC forces conducted multiple strikes on tankers and cargo ships transiting alternative routes in July, including attacks on three vessels in early July and a Thai-flagged ship on July 17, prompting U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iranian coastal surveillance, logistics, and naval sites as well as a renewed naval blockade. Into early August, additional incidents involving projectiles, seizures, and Iran-aligned Houthi activity in the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman continued amid stalled U.S.-Iran talks mediated through Oman, with traffic volumes remaining low and dozens of vessels still affected. These patterns of enforcement and disruption, set against ongoing diplomatic impasse, underpin the current market pricing.