Italy's Chamber of Deputies approved the nuclear framework delegation bill in early June 2026, sending it to the Senate amid government expectations of passage before the summer recess. With the August 31 deadline now under 11 days away and no confirmed Senate vote scheduled, traders assign a 98.9% probability against approval, reflecting standard legislative pacing, procedural requirements, and typical parliamentary calendars that limit action during this period. The Meloni government's broader energy policy push continues, supported by polling showing majority public backing for next-generation reactors, yet these elements have not accelerated Senate consideration. A last-minute expedited floor vote or special session remains the primary scenario that could alter the outcome before resolution.