Moonshot AI’s aggressive development cadence and Kimi K3’s July 2026 launch as the largest open-weight model to date (2.8 trillion parameters, 1M context) set expectations for a swift K4 follow-up, yet trader sentiment reflects uncertainty around compute constraints and timeline slippage. The company is actively seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a meaningfully larger successor, amid U.S. export controls that complicate scaling, while a September 11 K2.8 preview update demonstrates continued iteration on coding and agentic performance close to K3 levels without a full next-generation release. Competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models and other Chinese labs, combined with Moonshot’s history of 2–3 month release cycles, keeps focus on whether hardware access and internal progress can deliver public availability of Kimi K4 by late 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoKimi K4 rilasciato da...?
Kimi K4 rilasciato da...?
$17,814 Vol.
31 ott 2026
31 ottobre 2026
3%
31 dicembre 2026
5%
$17,814 Vol.
31 ottobre 2026
$9,489 Vol.
3%
31 dicembre 2026
$8,325 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s aggressive development cadence and Kimi K3’s July 2026 launch as the largest open-weight model to date (2.8 trillion parameters, 1M context) set expectations for a swift K4 follow-up, yet trader sentiment reflects uncertainty around compute constraints and timeline slippage. The company is actively seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a meaningfully larger successor, amid U.S. export controls that complicate scaling, while a September 11 K2.8 preview update demonstrates continued iteration on coding and agentic performance close to K3 levels without a full next-generation release. Competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models and other Chinese labs, combined with Moonshot’s history of 2–3 month release cycles, keeps focus on whether hardware access and internal progress can deliver public availability of Kimi K4 by late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$17,814Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s aggressive development cadence and Kimi K3’s July 2026 launch as the largest open-weight model to date (2.8 trillion parameters, 1M context) set expectations for a swift K4 follow-up, yet trader sentiment reflects uncertainty around compute constraints and timeline slippage. The company is actively seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a meaningfully larger successor, amid U.S. export controls that complicate scaling, while a September 11 K2.8 preview update demonstrates continued iteration on coding and agentic performance close to K3 levels without a full next-generation release. Competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models and other Chinese labs, combined with Moonshot’s history of 2–3 month release cycles, keeps focus on whether hardware access and internal progress can deliver public availability of Kimi K4 by late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$17,814Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s aggressive development cadence and Kimi K3’s July 2026 launch as the largest open-weight model to date (2.8 trillion parameters, 1M context) set expectations for a swift K4 follow-up, yet trader sentiment reflects uncertainty around compute constraints and timeline slippage. The company is actively seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a meaningfully larger successor, amid U.S. export controls that complicate scaling, while a September 11 K2.8 preview update demonstrates continued iteration on coding and agentic performance close to K3 levels without a full next-generation release. Competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models and other Chinese labs, combined with Moonshot’s history of 2–3 month release cycles, keeps focus on whether hardware access and internal progress can deliver public availability of Kimi K4 by late 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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