Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 50-51°F in New York City on April 28, driven by finalized observations from the LaGuardia Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground data—which recorded the minimum in that precise range. Mild southerly flow and urban heat retention under partly cloudy skies overnight prevented sharper cooling, aligning with National Weather Service model consensus from the prior day forecasting lows near 50°F amid a broader warm spring pattern. Late April climatology supports this, with historical Central Park analogs averaging 48°F lows. Realistic challenges are minimal post-finalization, though rare data audits could prompt revisions; otherwise, resolution appears certain.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di New York il 28 aprile?
La temperatura più bassa di New York il 28 aprile?
50-51°F 100.0%
52-53°F 1.0%
39°F o inferiore <1%
40-41°F <1%
$28,173 Vol.
$28,173 Vol.
28 apr 2026
39°F o inferiore
No
40-41°F
No
42-43°F
No
44-45°F
No
46-47°F
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
Sì
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58°F o superiore
No
50-51°F 100.0%
52-53°F 1.0%
39°F o inferiore <1%
40-41°F <1%
$28,173 Vol.
$28,173 Vol.
28 apr 2026
39°F o inferiore
$1,194 Vol.
No
40-41°F
$905 Vol.
No
42-43°F
$1,585 Vol.
No
44-45°F
$1,773 Vol.
No
46-47°F
$8,679 Vol.
No
48-49°F
$1,704 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$3,217 Vol.
Sì
52-53°F
$2,483 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$988 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$508 Vol.
No
58°F o superiore
$5,137 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 50-51°F in New York City on April 28, driven by finalized observations from the LaGuardia Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground data—which recorded the minimum in that precise range. Mild southerly flow and urban heat retention under partly cloudy skies overnight prevented sharper cooling, aligning with National Weather Service model consensus from the prior day forecasting lows near 50°F amid a broader warm spring pattern. Late April climatology supports this, with historical Central Park analogs averaging 48°F lows. Realistic challenges are minimal post-finalization, though rare data audits could prompt revisions; otherwise, resolution appears certain.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$28,173Data di fine
28 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 50-51°F in New York City on April 28, driven by finalized observations from the LaGuardia Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground data—which recorded the minimum in that precise range. Mild southerly flow and urban heat retention under partly cloudy skies overnight prevented sharper cooling, aligning with National Weather Service model consensus from the prior day forecasting lows near 50°F amid a broader warm spring pattern. Late April climatology supports this, with historical Central Park analogs averaging 48°F lows. Realistic challenges are minimal post-finalization, though rare data audits could prompt revisions; otherwise, resolution appears certain.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,173Data di fine
28 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 50-51°F in New York City on April 28, driven by finalized observations from the LaGuardia Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground data—which recorded the minimum in that precise range. Mild southerly flow and urban heat retention under partly cloudy skies overnight prevented sharper cooling, aligning with National Weather Service model consensus from the prior day forecasting lows near 50°F amid a broader warm spring pattern. Late April climatology supports this, with historical Central Park analogs averaging 48°F lows. Realistic challenges are minimal post-finalization, though rare data audits could prompt revisions; otherwise, resolution appears certain.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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