Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs for New York City show a northerly flow behind a frontal passage, with persistent cloud cover, showers likely on September 26, and forecast overnight lows clustered in the upper 50s°F amid 15–25 mph winds. This setup, influenced by a broader El Niño-driven pattern favoring above-average seasonal temperatures, creates tight uncertainty around whether radiational cooling under partial clearing can dip toward record-challenging levels near 53°F or whether warmer maritime air and precipitation will hold minima closer to or above 60°F. Traders price the 53°F-or-below and 72°F-or-higher buckets near even odds because small shifts in cloud timing, wind speed, or model bias on boundary-layer mixing could easily swing the daily minimum across multiple resolution thresholds, while mid-range outcomes reflect the current consensus mean. Updated model runs and local observations through the weekend will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di New York il 26 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa di New York il 26 settembre?
53°F o inferiore 50%
72°F o superiore 47%
58-59°F 40%
54-55°F 38%
NUOVO
NUOVO
26 set 2026
53°F o inferiore
50%
54-55°F
38%
56-57°F
38%
58-59°F
40%
60-61°F
21%
62-63°F
21%
64-65°F
16%
66-67°F
38%
68-69°F
38%
70-71°F
38%
72°F o superiore
47%
53°F o inferiore 50%
72°F o superiore 47%
58-59°F 40%
54-55°F 38%
NUOVO
NUOVO
26 set 2026
53°F o inferiore
$0 Vol.
50%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
38%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
38%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
40%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
21%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
21%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
16%
66-67°F
$5 Vol.
38%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
38%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
38%
72°F o superiore
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs for New York City show a northerly flow behind a frontal passage, with persistent cloud cover, showers likely on September 26, and forecast overnight lows clustered in the upper 50s°F amid 15–25 mph winds. This setup, influenced by a broader El Niño-driven pattern favoring above-average seasonal temperatures, creates tight uncertainty around whether radiational cooling under partial clearing can dip toward record-challenging levels near 53°F or whether warmer maritime air and precipitation will hold minima closer to or above 60°F. Traders price the 53°F-or-below and 72°F-or-higher buckets near even odds because small shifts in cloud timing, wind speed, or model bias on boundary-layer mixing could easily swing the daily minimum across multiple resolution thresholds, while mid-range outcomes reflect the current consensus mean. Updated model runs and local observations through the weekend will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 24, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$5Data di fine
26 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 24, 2026, 3:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaRisolutore
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs for New York City show a northerly flow behind a frontal passage, with persistent cloud cover, showers likely on September 26, and forecast overnight lows clustered in the upper 50s°F amid 15–25 mph winds. This setup, influenced by a broader El Niño-driven pattern favoring above-average seasonal temperatures, creates tight uncertainty around whether radiational cooling under partial clearing can dip toward record-challenging levels near 53°F or whether warmer maritime air and precipitation will hold minima closer to or above 60°F. Traders price the 53°F-or-below and 72°F-or-higher buckets near even odds because small shifts in cloud timing, wind speed, or model bias on boundary-layer mixing could easily swing the daily minimum across multiple resolution thresholds, while mid-range outcomes reflect the current consensus mean. Updated model runs and local observations through the weekend will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5Data di fine
26 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 24, 2026, 3:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaRisolutore
0x69c47de9d...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs for New York City show a northerly flow behind a frontal passage, with persistent cloud cover, showers likely on September 26, and forecast overnight lows clustered in the upper 50s°F amid 15–25 mph winds. This setup, influenced by a broader El Niño-driven pattern favoring above-average seasonal temperatures, creates tight uncertainty around whether radiational cooling under partial clearing can dip toward record-challenging levels near 53°F or whether warmer maritime air and precipitation will hold minima closer to or above 60°F. Traders price the 53°F-or-below and 72°F-or-higher buckets near even odds because small shifts in cloud timing, wind speed, or model bias on boundary-layer mixing could easily swing the daily minimum across multiple resolution thresholds, while mid-range outcomes reflect the current consensus mean. Updated model runs and local observations through the weekend will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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