Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on May 3, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data confirming an early-morning minimum of 17°C at key stations amid a stable high-pressure system. Partly cloudy skies, light winds around 5-10 km/h, and urban heat island effects have prevented further radiational cooling, with afternoon temperatures climbing to 23°C. This aligns with above-normal May patterns, where historical daily minima average 14-15°C but current model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts like ECMWF show consensus for mild overnight conditions. Realistic challenges include an unexpected late-evening cold air advection or station-specific measurement anomaly, though diurnal heating and proximity to resolution make shifts improbable; final JMA daily summary expected soon.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Tokyo il 3 maggio?
La temperatura più bassa di Tokyo il 3 maggio?
17°C 100.0%
12°C o inferiore <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$25,648 Vol.
$25,648 Vol.
3 mag 2026
12°C o inferiore
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Sì
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C o superiore
No
17°C 100.0%
12°C o inferiore <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$25,648 Vol.
$25,648 Vol.
3 mag 2026
12°C o inferiore
$2,053 Vol.
No
13°C
$714 Vol.
No
14°C
$6,119 Vol.
No
15°C
$4,006 Vol.
No
16°C
$2,433 Vol.
No
17°C
$6,838 Vol.
Sì
18°C
$874 Vol.
No
19°C
$693 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,002 Vol.
No
21°C
$328 Vol.
No
22°C o superiore
$588 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on May 3, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data confirming an early-morning minimum of 17°C at key stations amid a stable high-pressure system. Partly cloudy skies, light winds around 5-10 km/h, and urban heat island effects have prevented further radiational cooling, with afternoon temperatures climbing to 23°C. This aligns with above-normal May patterns, where historical daily minima average 14-15°C but current model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts like ECMWF show consensus for mild overnight conditions. Realistic challenges include an unexpected late-evening cold air advection or station-specific measurement anomaly, though diurnal heating and proximity to resolution make shifts improbable; final JMA daily summary expected soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$25,648Data di fine
3 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on May 3, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data confirming an early-morning minimum of 17°C at key stations amid a stable high-pressure system. Partly cloudy skies, light winds around 5-10 km/h, and urban heat island effects have prevented further radiational cooling, with afternoon temperatures climbing to 23°C. This aligns with above-normal May patterns, where historical daily minima average 14-15°C but current model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts like ECMWF show consensus for mild overnight conditions. Realistic challenges include an unexpected late-evening cold air advection or station-specific measurement anomaly, though diurnal heating and proximity to resolution make shifts improbable; final JMA daily summary expected soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$25,648Data di fine
3 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on May 3, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data confirming an early-morning minimum of 17°C at key stations amid a stable high-pressure system. Partly cloudy skies, light winds around 5-10 km/h, and urban heat island effects have prevented further radiational cooling, with afternoon temperatures climbing to 23°C. This aligns with above-normal May patterns, where historical daily minima average 14-15°C but current model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts like ECMWF show consensus for mild overnight conditions. Realistic challenges include an unexpected late-evening cold air advection or station-specific measurement anomaly, though diurnal heating and proximity to resolution make shifts improbable; final JMA daily summary expected soon.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti