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Tecnologia·Big Tech

Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?

Market icon
Tecnologia·Big Tech

Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?

giu 30

giu 30

27% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
27% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI. Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74% implied probability against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman receiving equity by June 30, driven by the absence of any official announcement or confirmed restructuring amid ongoing non-profit oversight complexities. Recent leaked cap tables from early April explicitly show Altman's 0% direct ownership, echoing his public admissions of forgoing equity for a modest salary and insurance—motivated by his "childhood dream" role at the AI lab. Massive funding rounds exceeding $100 billion in recent months prioritized investor commitments without altering his stake, while CFO Sarah Friar's warnings on aggressive 2026 IPO timelines highlight internal tensions unlikely to resolve the equity issue pre-deadline. Key catalysts ahead include potential board filings or leadership statements, though historical delays in promised reforms temper optimism.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI.

Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,887
Data di fine
30 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI. Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI. Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74% implied probability against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman receiving equity by June 30, driven by the absence of any official announcement or confirmed restructuring amid ongoing non-profit oversight complexities. Recent leaked cap tables from early April explicitly show Altman's 0% direct ownership, echoing his public admissions of forgoing equity for a modest salary and insurance—motivated by his "childhood dream" role at the AI lab. Massive funding rounds exceeding $100 billion in recent months prioritized investor commitments without altering his stake, while CFO Sarah Friar's warnings on aggressive 2026 IPO timelines highlight internal tensions unlikely to resolve the equity issue pre-deadline. Key catalysts ahead include potential board filings or leadership statements, though historical delays in promised reforms temper optimism.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI.

Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,887
Data di fine
30 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI. Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Domande frequenti

"Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni "Sì" o "No" in base a se credono che questo evento accadrà. La probabilità attuale aggregata è 27% per "Yes". Ad esempio, se "Sì" è quotato a 27¢, il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 27% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Nov 12, 2025. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?", scegli semplicemente se ritieni che la risposta sia "Sì" o "No". Ogni lato ha un prezzo corrente che riflette la probabilità implicita del mercato. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se compri azioni "Sì" e l'esito si risolve come "Sì", ogni azione paga $1. Se si risolve come "No", le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

La probabilità attuale per "Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?" è 27% per "Yes". Questo significa che la comunità Polymarket attualmente ritiene che ci sia una probabilità di 27% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale basandosi sulle operazioni effettive, fornendo un segnale continuamente aggiornato di ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.