Ongoing limited U.S. and Iranian strikes since early September 2026, centered on naval targets and the Strait of Hormuz, have reinforced trader views that Washington favors air and missile operations, sanctions, and blockade pressure over ground forces. Diplomatic channels via Oman and Qatar on maritime routes and economic relief continue alongside these exchanges, following the collapse of the June memorandum of understanding. President Trump has signaled openness to talks while weighing escalation options, yet Pentagon assessments and regional mediation efforts highlight the high costs and risks of any full-scale invasion. This mix of contained military activity and negotiation tracks has kept the implied probability of no U.S. invasion before 2027 at 83.5%.