Trader sentiment on Amazon's (AMZN) closing price for the week of March 23 remains evenly split across bins from below $185 to above $230, with implied probabilities hovering at 48.5-49.5%, reflecting balanced uncertainty amid macroeconomic crosswinds and firm-specific catalysts. Primary driver is the Federal Reserve's March 18-19 FOMC meeting, where rate cut expectations (market pricing ~75% chance of 25bps trim) could boost growth stocks like AMZN, currently trading near $189, yet persistent inflation risks temper upside. Bullish AWS cloud revenue growth (up 19% YoY last quarter) and AI capex fuel optimism for $200+ bins, while e-commerce margin pressures from competitive discounting weigh on sub-$190 outcomes. Key differentiator: post-meeting volatility, historically 4% for AMZN, hinges on dot-plot revisions versus trader consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$205〜$210 30%
$200~$205 29%
$210〜$215 24%
195ドル〜200ドル 24%
185ドル未満
11%
185ドル〜190ドル
11%
$190~$195
12%
195ドル〜200ドル
24%
$200~$205
29%
$205〜$210
30%
$210〜$215
24%
$215〜$220
13%
$220~$225
9%
$225~$230
8%
230ドル超
11%
$205〜$210 30%
$200~$205 29%
$210〜$215 24%
195ドル〜200ドル 24%
185ドル未満
11%
185ドル〜190ドル
11%
$190~$195
12%
195ドル〜200ドル
24%
$200~$205
29%
$205〜$210
30%
$210〜$215
24%
$215〜$220
13%
$220~$225
9%
$225~$230
8%
230ドル超
11%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Amazon (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices."
マーケット開始日: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Amazon's (AMZN) closing price for the week of March 23 remains evenly split across bins from below $185 to above $230, with implied probabilities hovering at 48.5-49.5%, reflecting balanced uncertainty amid macroeconomic crosswinds and firm-specific catalysts. Primary driver is the Federal Reserve's March 18-19 FOMC meeting, where rate cut expectations (market pricing ~75% chance of 25bps trim) could boost growth stocks like AMZN, currently trading near $189, yet persistent inflation risks temper upside. Bullish AWS cloud revenue growth (up 19% YoY last quarter) and AI capex fuel optimism for $200+ bins, while e-commerce margin pressures from competitive discounting weigh on sub-$190 outcomes. Key differentiator: post-meeting volatility, historically 4% for AMZN, hinges on dot-plot revisions versus trader consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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