Recent releases and benchmark results position "Other" as the dominant market-implied outcome at 89.5%, reflecting trader consensus that frontier models beyond the listed Claude variants will lead on August 10. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5, launched July 24, 2026, delivered strong gains on agentic coding and computer-use benchmarks like OSWorld and Frontier-Bench, narrowing gaps with OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, which currently tops several GPQA and SWE-Bench evaluations. Claude Fable 5, generally available since June, remains competitive for long-running agents but trails newer iterations on key leaderboards. With the resolution date only days away, minimal new announcements expected before August 10 sustain the high probability assigned to unlisted models amid ongoing competitive shifts in large language model capabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日その他 89.5%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 8.0%
claude-fable-5 <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$59,475 Vol.
$59,475 Vol.
2026/08/10
その他
90%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
8%
claude-fable-5
<1%
claude-opus-4-6
<1%
その他 89.5%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 8.0%
claude-fable-5 <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$59,475 Vol.
$59,475 Vol.
2026/08/10
その他
$32,210 Vol.
90%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$21,556 Vol.
8%
claude-fable-5
$3,364 Vol.
<1%
claude-opus-4-6
$2,345 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent releases and benchmark results position "Other" as the dominant market-implied outcome at 89.5%, reflecting trader consensus that frontier models beyond the listed Claude variants will lead on August 10. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5, launched July 24, 2026, delivered strong gains on agentic coding and computer-use benchmarks like OSWorld and Frontier-Bench, narrowing gaps with OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, which currently tops several GPQA and SWE-Bench evaluations. Claude Fable 5, generally available since June, remains competitive for long-running agents but trails newer iterations on key leaderboards. With the resolution date only days away, minimal new announcements expected before August 10 sustain the high probability assigned to unlisted models amid ongoing competitive shifts in large language model capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
音量
$59,475終了日
2026/08/10マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 6:57 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent releases and benchmark results position "Other" as the dominant market-implied outcome at 89.5%, reflecting trader consensus that frontier models beyond the listed Claude variants will lead on August 10. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5, launched July 24, 2026, delivered strong gains on agentic coding and computer-use benchmarks like OSWorld and Frontier-Bench, narrowing gaps with OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, which currently tops several GPQA and SWE-Bench evaluations. Claude Fable 5, generally available since June, remains competitive for long-running agents but trails newer iterations on key leaderboards. With the resolution date only days away, minimal new announcements expected before August 10 sustain the high probability assigned to unlisted models amid ongoing competitive shifts in large language model capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$59,475終了日
2026/08/10マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 6:57 PM ETRecent releases and benchmark results position "Other" as the dominant market-implied outcome at 89.5%, reflecting trader consensus that frontier models beyond the listed Claude variants will lead on August 10. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5, launched July 24, 2026, delivered strong gains on agentic coding and computer-use benchmarks like OSWorld and Frontier-Bench, narrowing gaps with OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, which currently tops several GPQA and SWE-Bench evaluations. Claude Fable 5, generally available since June, remains competitive for long-running agents but trails newer iterations on key leaderboards. With the resolution date only days away, minimal new announcements expected before August 10 sustain the high probability assigned to unlisted models amid ongoing competitive shifts in large language model capabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問