Recent release of Claude Opus 5 on July 24, 2026, drives the strong trader consensus behind claude-opus-5-max at 85% implied probability for the best model on August 17. Anthropic positioned the new model as delivering near-frontier performance comparable to Claude Fable 5 on coding, reasoning, and knowledge benchmarks at half the cost, with thinking enabled by default, expanded effort levels including max, a 1-million-token context window, and fast mode options. It immediately became the default on Claude Max plans and the strongest option on Pro, outpacing prior Opus 4.8 iterations. Lower probabilities on claude-opus-5-high and earlier variants like claude-opus-4-6 reflect traders' focus on the latest max-effort configuration, while modest shares for Other and Fable 5 acknowledge competitive pressure from non-Anthropic models and the established frontier tier. No major releases or benchmark shifts have emerged in the past week to alter this positioning ahead of the mid-August resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日claude-opus-5-max 84%
claude-opus-5-high 28%
その他 8%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 6%
新規
新規
2026/08/17
claude-opus-5-max
84%
claude-opus-5-high
28%
その他
8%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
6%
claude-fable-5
4%
claude-opus-4-6
3%
claude-opus-5-max 84%
claude-opus-5-high 28%
その他 8%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 6%
新規
新規
2026/08/17
claude-opus-5-max
$93 Vol.
84%
claude-opus-5-high
$0 Vol.
28%
その他
$0 Vol.
8%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$77 Vol.
6%
claude-fable-5
$48 Vol.
4%
claude-opus-4-6
$111 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent release of Claude Opus 5 on July 24, 2026, drives the strong trader consensus behind claude-opus-5-max at 85% implied probability for the best model on August 17. Anthropic positioned the new model as delivering near-frontier performance comparable to Claude Fable 5 on coding, reasoning, and knowledge benchmarks at half the cost, with thinking enabled by default, expanded effort levels including max, a 1-million-token context window, and fast mode options. It immediately became the default on Claude Max plans and the strongest option on Pro, outpacing prior Opus 4.8 iterations. Lower probabilities on claude-opus-5-high and earlier variants like claude-opus-4-6 reflect traders' focus on the latest max-effort configuration, while modest shares for Other and Fable 5 acknowledge competitive pressure from non-Anthropic models and the established frontier tier. No major releases or benchmark shifts have emerged in the past week to alter this positioning ahead of the mid-August resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
音量
$330終了日
2026/08/17マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent release of Claude Opus 5 on July 24, 2026, drives the strong trader consensus behind claude-opus-5-max at 85% implied probability for the best model on August 17. Anthropic positioned the new model as delivering near-frontier performance comparable to Claude Fable 5 on coding, reasoning, and knowledge benchmarks at half the cost, with thinking enabled by default, expanded effort levels including max, a 1-million-token context window, and fast mode options. It immediately became the default on Claude Max plans and the strongest option on Pro, outpacing prior Opus 4.8 iterations. Lower probabilities on claude-opus-5-high and earlier variants like claude-opus-4-6 reflect traders' focus on the latest max-effort configuration, while modest shares for Other and Fable 5 acknowledge competitive pressure from non-Anthropic models and the established frontier tier. No major releases or benchmark shifts have emerged in the past week to alter this positioning ahead of the mid-August resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$330終了日
2026/08/17マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETRecent release of Claude Opus 5 on July 24, 2026, drives the strong trader consensus behind claude-opus-5-max at 85% implied probability for the best model on August 17. Anthropic positioned the new model as delivering near-frontier performance comparable to Claude Fable 5 on coding, reasoning, and knowledge benchmarks at half the cost, with thinking enabled by default, expanded effort levels including max, a 1-million-token context window, and fast mode options. It immediately became the default on Claude Max plans and the strongest option on Pro, outpacing prior Opus 4.8 iterations. Lower probabilities on claude-opus-5-high and earlier variants like claude-opus-4-6 reflect traders' focus on the latest max-effort configuration, while modest shares for Other and Fable 5 acknowledge competitive pressure from non-Anthropic models and the established frontier tier. No major releases or benchmark shifts have emerged in the past week to alter this positioning ahead of the mid-August resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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