Recent redeployment of Claude Fable 5 in early July, alongside strong benchmark showings on agentic coding and reasoning tasks, has elevated Anthropic's Claude lineup in trader assessments for the July 25 snapshot. Opus 4.6 variants, including enhanced "thinking" modes with extended reasoning chains, lead implied odds due to consistent performance on established evaluations like SWE-bench and agentic search, where they maintain competitive edges over prior generations. Fable 5 trails slightly in market consensus amid lingering access limits and higher pricing, while "Other" reflects uncertainty around OpenAI's GPT-5.5 iterations or unannounced updates. Key catalysts ahead include any final pre-July 25 model tweaks or public benchmark releases that could shift capability rankings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日claude-opus-4-6-thinking 99.4%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-fable-5 <1%
その他 <1%
$9,759 Vol.
$9,759 Vol.
2026/07/25
claude-opus-4-6
いいえ
claude-fable-5
いいえ
その他
いいえ
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
はい
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 99.4%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-fable-5 <1%
その他 <1%
$9,759 Vol.
$9,759 Vol.
2026/07/25
claude-opus-4-6
$602 Vol.
いいえ
claude-fable-5
$2,559 Vol.
いいえ
その他
$2,524 Vol.
いいえ
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$4,074 Vol.
はい
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent redeployment of Claude Fable 5 in early July, alongside strong benchmark showings on agentic coding and reasoning tasks, has elevated Anthropic's Claude lineup in trader assessments for the July 25 snapshot. Opus 4.6 variants, including enhanced "thinking" modes with extended reasoning chains, lead implied odds due to consistent performance on established evaluations like SWE-bench and agentic search, where they maintain competitive edges over prior generations. Fable 5 trails slightly in market consensus amid lingering access limits and higher pricing, while "Other" reflects uncertainty around OpenAI's GPT-5.5 iterations or unannounced updates. Key catalysts ahead include any final pre-July 25 model tweaks or public benchmark releases that could shift capability rankings.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Jul 16, 2026, 11:03 PM ET
音量
$9,759終了日
2026/07/25マーケット開始日
Jul 16, 2026, 11:03 PM ET提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent redeployment of Claude Fable 5 in early July, alongside strong benchmark showings on agentic coding and reasoning tasks, has elevated Anthropic's Claude lineup in trader assessments for the July 25 snapshot. Opus 4.6 variants, including enhanced "thinking" modes with extended reasoning chains, lead implied odds due to consistent performance on established evaluations like SWE-bench and agentic search, where they maintain competitive edges over prior generations. Fable 5 trails slightly in market consensus amid lingering access limits and higher pricing, while "Other" reflects uncertainty around OpenAI's GPT-5.5 iterations or unannounced updates. Key catalysts ahead include any final pre-July 25 model tweaks or public benchmark releases that could shift capability rankings.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$9,759終了日
2026/07/25マーケット開始日
Jul 16, 2026, 11:03 PM ET提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
Recent redeployment of Claude Fable 5 in early July, alongside strong benchmark showings on agentic coding and reasoning tasks, has elevated Anthropic's Claude lineup in trader assessments for the July 25 snapshot. Opus 4.6 variants, including enhanced "thinking" modes with extended reasoning chains, lead implied odds due to consistent performance on established evaluations like SWE-bench and agentic search, where they maintain competitive edges over prior generations. Fable 5 trails slightly in market consensus amid lingering access limits and higher pricing, while "Other" reflects uncertainty around OpenAI's GPT-5.5 iterations or unannounced updates. Key catalysts ahead include any final pre-July 25 model tweaks or public benchmark releases that could shift capability rankings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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